LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central and
southern High Plains on Thursday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern is expected to feature ridging across the central
CONUS, flanked on each side by upper troughing across the western
and eastern CONUS. The western CONUS troughing will likely deepen as
pair of shortwave troughs rotate through its base. Upper low
anchoring the eastern CONUS troughing is expected to gradually
progresses eastward across ME. Even with these change, the upper
ridging across the central CONUS will persist, resulting in
relatively little change to the overall upper pattern throughout the
period.
At the surface, expansive ridging will extend from the Upper Midwest
across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Northeast. Lee troughing will
persist across the High Plains, with decent low-level moisture east
of this troughing across the Plains and High Plains. This low-level
moisture and associated moderate buoyancy is expected to foster
another day of afternoon thunderstorm development across the
southern and central High Plains.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the southern TX Panhandle
into northwest TX Thursday morning, and the evolution of these
storms may influence the severe potential later in the day across
the southern High Plains. However, the current expectation is for
this cluster of storms to continue eastward/southeastward, with
quick low-level moisture return in its wake. Afternoon storms
development is anticipated across the higher terrain, with these
storms then moving into the more buoyant air mass over the lower
elevations. Severe threat may extend farther north (i.e. into
northeast CO) and farther south (i.e. into more of TX Big Bend
region) than in previous days. Expansion into these areas is
supported by increased low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy.
Primary severe risk will be damaging gusts, but some isolated hail
and perhaps a brief tornado or two is also possible.
...Northern High Plains...
At least scattered thunderstorm coverage is anticipated Thursday
afternoon across the region as storms move off the higher terrain
into the lower elevations of central MT. One or more bowing segments
may develop during the evening as storms continue
northward/northeastward across central and eastern MT. However,
mid-level flow will be relatively modest, likely limiting the wind
gust potential.
..Mosier.. 05/24/2023
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