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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, May 24, 2023

SPC May 24, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging gusts, along with a tornado or two will be possible. Additional strong storms may bring hail and gusty winds to portions of the Great Basin and northern High Plains, with strong gusts possible across the Florida Peninsula. ...Central/Southern Plains... Some uncertainty lingers regarding extent of severe potential into parts of northwest Texas today. Overnight convection lingering into this morning will lead to quite a bit of airmass recovery/modification necessary to realize severe convection over the TX South Plains to west-central TX vicinity. Forecast guidance also indicates possible subsidence behind the ongoing MCS (as of 05z), and some midlevel warming building into the southern High Plains, potentially limiting southeast extent of severe potential and greater thunderstorm coverage. As a result, the initial Day 1 slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has not change too much from the previous Day 2 outlook, with some adjustment westward based on guidance trends. Adequate (upper 50s and low 60s F) boundary layer moisture will reside north of an outflow boundary draped across western and central TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in moderate destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg) amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Convection will initiate off higher terrain from northeast NM into southeast CO and intensify as storms track southeast through the evening. Large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. Modest low-level moisture and generally weak 0-3 km shear will limit tornado potential, though a brief tornado or two can not be ruled out, especially with storm/outflow interactions. ...NV/UT into eastern MT... The western upper trough will not move much today, with some modest enhancement of mid/upper southwesterly flow spreading from the Great Basin into eastern MT. Pockets of seasonally moist boundary-layer dewpoints and stronger heating amid steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in diurnal destabilization. Scattered thunderstorm will develop over terrain favored areas as well as ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front across eastern MT. Marginal vertical shear and sufficient instability will allow for isolated strong to severe storms capable of hail and strong outflow winds. ...Florida Peninsula... The southern extent of the eastern U.S. upper trough will linger over Florida today. Vertical shear will remain modest, but abundant boundary-layer moisture and heating will allow for moderate destabilization. Thunderstorm development will focus along sea breeze and outflow boundaries and a few wet microbursts could produce damaging gusts through early evening. Some of the more robust updrafts may also be briefly capable of small hail. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 05/24/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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