LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across
portions of the southern Plains. Damaging gusts and large hail will
be the main hazards with this activity. Additional strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly producing strong gusts, are
possible across Florida this afternoon.
...Southern Plains...
Short-wave ridging is forecast to hold across NM during the day1
period with continued modest (~25kt @ 500mb) west-northwesterly flow
expected across the southern Plains. Latest satellite imagery
suggests a weak disturbance may be noted over southwest CO. This
feature should progress into northeast NM later today which would
time favorably for afternoon convection across the southern High
Plains. Additionally, this feature should encourage a weak surface
low in the lee of the southern NM mountains. Net result will be an
easterly low-level component across the TX South Plains/Panhandle
into eastern NM. As a result, steepest lapse rates will focus a bit
farther west Tuesday and convection is expected to initiate near the
NM/TX border by 20z as temperatures warm to near 80F. Surface
parcels will be minimally inhibited at this point and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop within a modestly buoyant air
mass characterized by surface-6km shear on the order of 25kt;
however, deep-layer bulk shear should increase into the early
evening which will favor slow-moving supercells. A similar
convective evolution may be noted again today - compared to Monday -
with upscale growth likely into the early evening hours. Very large
hail could be noted with discrete supercells before clustering after
sunset. This activity will propagate southeast aided by 20+kt 850mb
southeasterly flow during the evening.
...Florida...
Notable, but seasonally weak, mid-level southern stream will persist
across the Gulf States/Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. Several embedded
disturbances are noted within this flow but diurnal heating should
prove instrumental in robust thunderstorms once again today. As
temperatures warm into the lower-mid 80s scattered convection should
easily develop across the Peninsula. This activity will propagate
slowly southeast with the primary risk being gusty winds. Modest
lapse rates and surface-6km bulk shear less than 20kt suggest severe
threat will remain somewhat isolated.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/23/2023
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