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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, May 23, 2023

SPC May 23, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across portions of the southern Plains. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main hazards with this activity. Additional strong to isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly producing strong gusts, are possible across Florida this afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Short-wave ridging is forecast to hold across NM during the day1 period with continued modest (~25kt @ 500mb) west-northwesterly flow expected across the southern Plains. Latest satellite imagery suggests a weak disturbance may be noted over southwest CO. This feature should progress into northeast NM later today which would time favorably for afternoon convection across the southern High Plains. Additionally, this feature should encourage a weak surface low in the lee of the southern NM mountains. Net result will be an easterly low-level component across the TX South Plains/Panhandle into eastern NM. As a result, steepest lapse rates will focus a bit farther west Tuesday and convection is expected to initiate near the NM/TX border by 20z as temperatures warm to near 80F. Surface parcels will be minimally inhibited at this point and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within a modestly buoyant air mass characterized by surface-6km shear on the order of 25kt; however, deep-layer bulk shear should increase into the early evening which will favor slow-moving supercells. A similar convective evolution may be noted again today - compared to Monday - with upscale growth likely into the early evening hours. Very large hail could be noted with discrete supercells before clustering after sunset. This activity will propagate southeast aided by 20+kt 850mb southeasterly flow during the evening. ...Florida... Notable, but seasonally weak, mid-level southern stream will persist across the Gulf States/Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. Several embedded disturbances are noted within this flow but diurnal heating should prove instrumental in robust thunderstorms once again today. As temperatures warm into the lower-mid 80s scattered convection should easily develop across the Peninsula. This activity will propagate slowly southeast with the primary risk being gusty winds. Modest lapse rates and surface-6km bulk shear less than 20kt suggest severe threat will remain somewhat isolated. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/23/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC