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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, May 22, 2023

SPC May 22, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the primary hazards with these storms. Additional strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Montana, and parts of southern Alabama/Georgia into Florida. ...Southern High Plains... Weak mid-level disturbance is currently located along the northern periphery of a detached weak southern branch (southeast CO/northeast NM). This feature is expected to drift into the eastern TX Panhandle later today which will allow northwesterly flow at 500mb to strengthen a bit across the TX Panhandle into portions of northwest TX. Seasonally cool 500mb temperatures (minus 10-12C) will persist across much of the southern Plains and strong boundary-layer heating across this region will contribute to steep lower tropospheric lapse rates. Scattered convection is ongoing ahead of this mid-level feature from southwest KS into the TX South Plains. However, it's not particularly strong or organized at this time. In the absence of a notable LLJ, this activity should remain disorganized and weak through sunrise, and likely continue to weaken through 18z. With time boundary-layer heating will remove inhibition and surface parcels will breach convective temperatures, likely by 21z. Latest thinking is scattered robust storms will evolve within northwest flow regime, aided by the weak disturbance, across the High Plains of west TX. This activity should propagate slowly southeast during the late afternoon/evening with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ...MT... High-level diffluent flow will overspread MT ahead of a strong, progressive trough Monday. Latest data suggests one 500mb speed max will translate trough the base of the trough over OR before ejecting into northwest MT by 23/00z, then into southern AB by the end of the period. This evolution would allow meaningful height falls to spread across the northern Rockies which will encourage a surface front to surge into central MT by late afternoon. While boundary-layer moisture is not particularly high across the northern High Plains, it appears PW values should increase to around 1 inch ahead of the surface wind shift. Surface heating and orographic influence should lead to scattered, potentially robust, convection initiating across the higher terrain by 20z. This activity would then spread northeast toward lower elevations where steep lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles would appear supportive of gusty winds along with some hail threat. ...FL Region... 25-30kt 500mb westerly flow will persist across the FL Peninsula Monday as low-latitude southern stream will continue into the day2 period. It's not entirely clear whether a weak disturbance will actually influence convection during the day, but seasonally cool mid-level temperatures and boundary layer heating will prove instrumental in thunderstorm development. Robust convection is possible across the Peninsula into southeast AL. Gusty winds are the primary concern with scattered convection that materializes by mid day and continues into the early evening. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/22/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)