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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, April 2, 2023

SPC Apr 2, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a deep, occluding cyclone migrates across the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region into Ontario on Wednesday, its strongly sheared warm sector (and strong south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow) appears likely to overspread the middle Ohio Valley through lower Great Lakes region. Given at least weak coinciding boundary-layer destabilization evident in the model output, it appears that this regime probably will become conducive to organized convection, perhaps including a few supercells, posing a risk for severe weather. There are also indications that appreciable destabilization is possible to the east of the Allegheny Mountains, and near the Blue Ridge, where strengthening south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow is forecast along deepening lee surface troughing by early Wednesday evening. This environment could also become conducive to developing severe thunderstorm potential, but remains more uncertain at the present time. Thereafter, into late week, low-level cooling and drying in the wake of the cyclone is expected to contribute to increasingly negligible severe weather potential. It appears that this will be maintained through next weekend, as increasingly amplified flow across the Pacific into North America includes large-scale mid-level ridging building across the Pacific coast into the Great Plains, and downstream troughing evolving east of the Mississippi Valley into the western Atlantic. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)