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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, April 2, 2023

SPC Apr 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Areas of isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorms posing some risk of severe weather are possible across parts of the southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... It still appears that initially building large-scale mid-level ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific may reach peak amplitude during this period. As it does, downstream amplifying troughing likely will pivot east-northeastward toward the Rockies, after digging inland of the Pacific coast through the southern Great Basin and Colorado Valley vicinity. Farther downstream, mid-level ridging is forecast to build across and east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley, as well as north of the persistent subtropical ridge (centered near the Yucatan Peninsula), into the Gulf Coast states. Models indicate that strong surface cyclogenesis will commence across eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday into Monday night, with a broad belt of strengthening south-southwesterly return flow across the central and southern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. This should contribute to further boundary-layer moistening, as far north as a stalling frontal zone in the wake of a short wave perturbation accelerating east-northeast of the Great Lakes region through the Canadian Maritimes. This front is forecast to sharpen while slowly returning northward through southern portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by late Monday night. The depth of the boundary-layer moistening to the south of the front, however, may remain relatively modest. Meanwhile, as a mid-level low of Arctic origins lingers near/southeast of Hudson Bay, it still appears that associated cold surface air may begin to advance southward across portions of the central and eastern Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. ...Great Plains/Mississippi Valley... Beneath rising mid/upper-level heights and gradually increasing inhibition associated with elevated mixed-layer air advecting northward and northeastward across the region, convective potential for Monday through Monday night remains unclear. The dryline, which probably will retreat west-northwestward after mixing eastward during the day, will provide one possible focus for strong thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into south central Oklahoma, either late in the afternoon into early evening or overnight. Any such activity seems likely to remain rather isolated to widely scattered due to weak forcing, but with any sustained thunderstorm development, the environment probably will be conducive to supercells posing at least a risk for severe hail. Low-level warm advection, near a remnant outflow boundary in the wake of a dissipating cluster of thunderstorms, may provide another focus renewed thunderstorm development across northern Mississippi into central Alabama. This will be hampered by the warming aloft, but inhibition may remain weak enough through the day for isolated to widely scattered storms, in the presence of moderately large mixed-layer CAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell structures. Finally, model forecast soundings indicate that "loaded gun" type thermodynamic profiles may develop to the immediate north of the stalling/northward advancing surface front across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri into west-central/central Illinois. This might support periodic development of at least isolated storms capable of producing severe hail, aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection. ..Kerr.. 04/02/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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