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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, April 2, 2023

SPC Apr 2, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across central to northeast Texas between 2 to 11 PM CDT. Several tornadoes are possible, a couple of which may be strong, in addition to large hail and damaging winds. ...Central TX to the Ark-La-Miss... Rich western Gulf moisture characterized by upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points across south TX will advect northward and mix beneath an initially pronounced elevated mixed layer. The leading edge of the moisture return will result in a substantial moisture gradient/effective warm front near the Red River along the TX/OK border southeastward through central LA by late afternoon, and east of the dryline mixing into the Big Country and the Edwards Plateau. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over NM will provide favorably timed ascent with respect to peak diurnal heating. This will aid in scattered thunderstorms forming towards mid-afternoon near the intersection of the dryline and Gulf moisture plume. Additional storms will likely form downstream across parts of northeast TX within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime. The dampening nature of the trough will yield pronounced mid-level warming on the backside of it, rendering a progressive west to east cutoff of deep convection across north TX this evening. Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and a 60 to 70-kt jetlet attendant to the shortwave trough will yield several supercells capable of very large hail. It appears there will be a more favorable window for tornadoes centered on 22-02Z where 1) the southern-most discrete supercells will impinge on the richest low-level moisture and 2) semi-discrete supercells farther north track along leading outflow/effective warm front, amid 30-40 kt low-level winds. This could support a few tornadic supercells with a threat for a couple strong tornadoes. Supercells may grow upscale into a forward-propagating cluster/small MCS with embedded bowing segments possible across northeast TX. Weakening mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy with eastern extent and further dampening of the shortwave trough will probably preclude greater coverage of the damaging wind threat east of TX. But locally damaging winds and a brief tornado should remain possible east overnight towards the Ark-La-Miss. ..Grams/Goss.. 04/02/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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