LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NORTH
TX...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across central to
northeast Texas between 2 to 11 PM CDT. Several tornadoes are
possible, a couple of which may be strong, in addition to large hail
and damaging winds.
...Central TX to the Ark-La-Miss...
Rich western Gulf moisture characterized by upper 60s to low 70s
surface dew points across south TX will advect northward and mix
beneath an initially pronounced elevated mixed layer. The leading
edge of the moisture return will result in a substantial moisture
gradient/effective warm front near the Red River along the TX/OK
border southeastward through central LA by late afternoon, and east
of the dryline mixing into the Big Country and the Edwards Plateau.
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over NM will provide favorably
timed ascent with respect to peak diurnal heating. This will aid in
scattered thunderstorms forming towards mid-afternoon near the
intersection of the dryline and Gulf moisture plume. Additional
storms will likely form downstream across parts of northeast TX
within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime. The dampening
nature of the trough will yield pronounced mid-level warming on the
backside of it, rendering a progressive west to east cutoff of deep
convection across north TX this evening.
Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and a 60 to 70-kt
jetlet attendant to the shortwave trough will yield several
supercells capable of very large hail. It appears there will be a
more favorable window for tornadoes centered on 22-02Z where 1) the
southern-most discrete supercells will impinge on the richest
low-level moisture and 2) semi-discrete supercells farther north
track along leading outflow/effective warm front, amid 30-40 kt
low-level winds. This could support a few tornadic supercells with a
threat for a couple strong tornadoes. Supercells may grow upscale
into a forward-propagating cluster/small MCS with embedded bowing
segments possible across northeast TX. Weakening mid-level lapse
rates/buoyancy with eastern extent and further dampening of the
shortwave trough will probably preclude greater coverage of the
damaging wind threat east of TX. But locally damaging winds and a
brief tornado should remain possible east overnight towards the
Ark-La-Miss.
..Grams/Goss.. 04/02/2023
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