LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of very large hail, localized damaging winds,
and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into the early
evening across parts of the southern Plains, with the greatest
threat centered on north Texas.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across
the southern Plains during the day today, and into the Southeast
tonight. In the wake of this feature, a large-scale upper trough
will begin to amplify over the West. At the surface, a warm front
will move northward across TX through the day, in response to a
gradually deepening cyclone in the south-central High Plains. Later
tonight, the warm front will move northward along the Gulf Coast and
richer low-level moisture will begin returning to the lower MS
Valley region.
...North/central TX and vicinity...
As low-level moisture increases beneath steep midlevel lapse rates,
moderate to locally strong buoyancy will develop later today across
much of central/north TX. Initially elevated convection is expected
to develop by late morning or early afternoon from northwest TX into
southwest OK, within a low-level warm advection regime ahead of the
ejecting wave. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MUCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support some threat for
hail with the stronger elevated cells as they spread eastward.
With time, at least isolated surface-based storms are expected to
develop this afternoon, as modest heating occurs near/south of the
warm front, within a moistening boundary layer. Some initially
elevated convection may become rooted in the boundary layer, while
isolated supercell development will also be possible along an
eastward-moving dryline. MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, steep
midlevel lapse rates, and effective shear of 50+ kt will support a
threat of very large hail with any sustained supercell, along with a
threat of isolated severe gusts. Guidance varies somewhat regarding
the strength of low-level flow/shear across the warm sector, but any
sustained intense supercell would also pose some tornado threat,
especially in closer proximity to the northward-moving warm frontal
zone.
An Enhanced Risk has been added across north TX, where the greatest
storm coverage is currently anticipated within a favorable supercell
environment. Storm coverage becomes increasingly uncertain south of
the Enhanced Risk area into parts of central TX, but any sustained
supercell in this region would pose a threat of very large hail as
well.
...ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley...
Convection that develops across north TX during the day is expected
to develop into one or more eastward moving clusters that will move
across the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley. Some threat for hail,
damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado will likely spread as far as
northern LA/southern AR this evening. Overnight, the ejecting wave
and attendant convection may tend to outpace the better low-level
moisture return and destabilization, resulting in a gradually
decreasing severe threat with eastward extent.
..Dean/Thornton.. 04/02/2023
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