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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, April 2, 2023

SPC Apr 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of very large hail, localized damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern Plains, with the greatest threat centered on north Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the southern Plains during the day today, and into the Southeast tonight. In the wake of this feature, a large-scale upper trough will begin to amplify over the West. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across TX through the day, in response to a gradually deepening cyclone in the south-central High Plains. Later tonight, the warm front will move northward along the Gulf Coast and richer low-level moisture will begin returning to the lower MS Valley region. ...North/central TX and vicinity... As low-level moisture increases beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate to locally strong buoyancy will develop later today across much of central/north TX. Initially elevated convection is expected to develop by late morning or early afternoon from northwest TX into southwest OK, within a low-level warm advection regime ahead of the ejecting wave. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support some threat for hail with the stronger elevated cells as they spread eastward. With time, at least isolated surface-based storms are expected to develop this afternoon, as modest heating occurs near/south of the warm front, within a moistening boundary layer. Some initially elevated convection may become rooted in the boundary layer, while isolated supercell development will also be possible along an eastward-moving dryline. MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective shear of 50+ kt will support a threat of very large hail with any sustained supercell, along with a threat of isolated severe gusts. Guidance varies somewhat regarding the strength of low-level flow/shear across the warm sector, but any sustained intense supercell would also pose some tornado threat, especially in closer proximity to the northward-moving warm frontal zone. An Enhanced Risk has been added across north TX, where the greatest storm coverage is currently anticipated within a favorable supercell environment. Storm coverage becomes increasingly uncertain south of the Enhanced Risk area into parts of central TX, but any sustained supercell in this region would pose a threat of very large hail as well. ...ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley... Convection that develops across north TX during the day is expected to develop into one or more eastward moving clusters that will move across the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley. Some threat for hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado will likely spread as far as northern LA/southern AR this evening. Overnight, the ejecting wave and attendant convection may tend to outpace the better low-level moisture return and destabilization, resulting in a gradually decreasing severe threat with eastward extent. ..Dean/Thornton.. 04/02/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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