LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast
States and Florida on Thursday.
...Southeast and Florida...
The upper low expected to be over southern LA and the northwest Gulf
early Thursday morning is forecast to progress northeastward
throughout the period, while devolving into an open wave. Surface
low associated with this system will likely be over the coastal
MS/AL vicinity at the beginning of the period, before moving
gradually northwestward throughout the day. As this low moves
northwestward, a broad warm sector will advect northward over AL and
GA, resulting in modest buoyancy and the potential for
thunderstorms.
Much of the thunderstorm activity is expected to be multicellular,
but moderate low- to mid-level flow will exist throughout the
eastern periphery of this system, supporting potential
organization/rotation with any deep and more persistent updrafts.
Any such organized storm would have the potential to produce
damaging gusts and brief tornadoes. Identifying the area or areas
where this evolution into more organized storms is most likely is
currently difficult, owing to uncertainty in narrowing down where
the mesoscale environment will be most favorable. As such, will
leave any potential upgrades to later outlooks.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the western CONUS early
Thursday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within
this larger-scale troughing, including one that extends across
northern Great Basin and another farther south that extends from
southern CA to off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. The parent upper
troughing is expected to move gradually eastward, but the southern
shortwave should move quickly eastward/northeastward, likely
reaching the central/southern High Plains by early Friday morning.
In response to this evolution, lee troughing is expected to deepen
across the central and southern High Plains. Surface cyclogenesis is
anticipated over northeast CO, near the intersection of a stalled
front extending northeastward into central MN and the lee trough
extending south into far west TX. Despite limited low-level
moisture, strong diurnal heating and modest mid-level moisture
combined with convergence along the dryline and increasing
large-scale ascent should result in isolated late afternoon
thunderstorms from near the surface low and along the dryline south
into TX. High storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer may
support strong downdrafts with any more robust thunderstorms.
However, severe-storm coverage is currently expected to be low,
precluding the delineation of any outlook areas.
...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A surface low is expected to move gradually eastward in the vicinity
of the western KS/NE overnight, while a strong low-level jet
contributes to robust warm-air advection across the front. Modest
low-level moisture is anticipated in the vicinity of this front and
surface low, with mid 50s dewpoints remaining in TX. Even so the
strong warm-air advection and increasing mid-level moisture will
still support isolated thunderstorms from NE northeastward into MN.
Buoyancy will be limited, mitigating the overall severe potential.
..Mosier.. 04/12/2023
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