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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, April 12, 2023

SPC Apr 12, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Southeast States and Florida on Thursday. ...Southeast and Florida... The upper low expected to be over southern LA and the northwest Gulf early Thursday morning is forecast to progress northeastward throughout the period, while devolving into an open wave. Surface low associated with this system will likely be over the coastal MS/AL vicinity at the beginning of the period, before moving gradually northwestward throughout the day. As this low moves northwestward, a broad warm sector will advect northward over AL and GA, resulting in modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms. Much of the thunderstorm activity is expected to be multicellular, but moderate low- to mid-level flow will exist throughout the eastern periphery of this system, supporting potential organization/rotation with any deep and more persistent updrafts. Any such organized storm would have the potential to produce damaging gusts and brief tornadoes. Identifying the area or areas where this evolution into more organized storms is most likely is currently difficult, owing to uncertainty in narrowing down where the mesoscale environment will be most favorable. As such, will leave any potential upgrades to later outlooks. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the western CONUS early Thursday morning. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger-scale troughing, including one that extends across northern Great Basin and another farther south that extends from southern CA to off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. The parent upper troughing is expected to move gradually eastward, but the southern shortwave should move quickly eastward/northeastward, likely reaching the central/southern High Plains by early Friday morning. In response to this evolution, lee troughing is expected to deepen across the central and southern High Plains. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over northeast CO, near the intersection of a stalled front extending northeastward into central MN and the lee trough extending south into far west TX. Despite limited low-level moisture, strong diurnal heating and modest mid-level moisture combined with convergence along the dryline and increasing large-scale ascent should result in isolated late afternoon thunderstorms from near the surface low and along the dryline south into TX. High storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer may support strong downdrafts with any more robust thunderstorms. However, severe-storm coverage is currently expected to be low, precluding the delineation of any outlook areas. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A surface low is expected to move gradually eastward in the vicinity of the western KS/NE overnight, while a strong low-level jet contributes to robust warm-air advection across the front. Modest low-level moisture is anticipated in the vicinity of this front and surface low, with mid 50s dewpoints remaining in TX. Even so the strong warm-air advection and increasing mid-level moisture will still support isolated thunderstorms from NE northeastward into MN. Buoyancy will be limited, mitigating the overall severe potential. ..Mosier.. 04/12/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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