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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, April 14, 2023

SPC Apr 14, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are most likely from late afternoon through evening from central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will move east across the Rockies today, with 30-40 kt midlevel southwesterlies spreading into the Plains. Meanwhile, an upper low will move northeastward from the TN Valley toward the Appalachians, providing cool air aloft and maintaining a belt of stronger winds aloft across parts of the Southeast. At the surface, low pressure will translate south from western KS into the TX Panhandle as a cold front arrives from the north. A pre-frontal trough will extend northeastward toward MN and WI, with more southerly flow at 850 mb aiding moisture transport northward to meet the front. A dryline will extend from southwest KS across far western OK and into northwest TX for much of the day, with the hot/deeply mixed air nosing into central KS by late afternoon. The combination of cool midlevel temperatures/steep lapse rates and dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 50s should result in a concentrated area of severe today later today, centered over Kansas. ...Central Plains... The air mass over the warm sector will be capped for much of the day, as moisture returns resulting in a plume of strong instability from northwest OK into central KS. Forecast soundings late in the afternoon show impressive instability profiles with steep midlevel lapse rates over 8.0 C/km. As heating occurs near the low and dryline, the cap is likely to break over central KS, with storms likely developing near 21Z. Storms may develop rather quickly, with very large hail possible initially. With time, cells may merge into clusters, propagating rapidly northeastward across southeast NE and parts of northeast KS. A few significant severe wind gusts are forecast given ample instability and steep lapse rates. Capping will quickly limit eastern and southern extend of the threat, but a tail end storm or southward-moving outflow producing severe gusts may spread into northern OK during the evening as well as across the Kansas City area before completely dying out. ...Carolinas... Daytime heating beneath relatively cool midlevel temperatures with the upper low will result in areas of MLCAPE over 500 J/kg across the region, with pockets of 1000+ J/kg across eastern NC and southeast VA where dewpoints will remain in the mid 60s F. In the wake of early day activity associated with warm advection, heating of the moist air mass and sufficient instability with a very weak lee trough will lead to at least isolated daytime storms, some of which may produce locally damaging wind gusts and hail during the peak heating hours. Veering winds with height, although not strong, may support cellular activity, further supporting a hail threat. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 04/14/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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