LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WESTWARD INTO COASTAL ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central
High Plains, the southern and central Rockies, and the central Gulf
Coast/Florida Wednesday into the overnight hours. A few storms along
the northeastern Gulf Coast may produce isolated damaging winds and
a tornado or two overnight.
...Synopsis...
A low-latitude upper low will move very little today as it meanders
about the LA Coast, with the parent trough providing cool
temperatures aloft from TX to the FL Panhandle. A high-level speed
max will begin the day over the western Gulf of Mexico, and is
expected to curl northeastward around the low, nosing into the
northeastern Gulf Coast late.
At the surface, high pressure will extend from the Carolinas into
the Southern Plains, with strong surface easterlies across much of
FL and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon. A warm
front will gradually shift northward across FL, meeting a weak area
of low pressure over the water and nearing southeast LA by 12Z
Thursday.
Beginning during the evening and continuing overnight, dewpoints
will rise over these coastal counties, resulting in increasing
instability and supporting at least a minimal severe risk.
Elsewhere, an upper trough over the west will favor isolated
afternoon thunderstorms from parts of the Great Basin into the
northern High Plains, and from NM into western CO, with weak
instability precluding a severe risk.
...Coastal FL Panhandle/AL/MS Overnight...
Scattered to perhaps areas of numerous storms are likely to be
ongoing over the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico as the warm
front lifts slowly north. Potential for severe is forecast to
increase during the late evening and into the overnight period as
60s F dewpoints move onshore, increasing effective SRH along the
warm front. Although MLCAPE may only average near 750 J/kg after
06Z, hodographs will enlarge with 200+ J/kg effective SRH forecast
toward 12Z. As such, some storms along the warm front may acquire
rotation, with a risk of a brief tornado or two.
..Jewell/Wendt.. 04/12/2023
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SmLvXd
