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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, April 9, 2023

SPC Apr 9, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Apr 09 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon into the evening. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...Southern High Plains... Current satellite imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough over western NM shifting east-southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to progress into the TX South Plains by 18z, then lose its identity over the coastal plain of TX late in the period within a broadening low-latitude trough along the Gulf Coast. In the absence of height falls, dominant surface high anchored over the OH Valley/lower Great Lakes will influence low-level trajectories across the southern Plains. It appears weak southeasterly boundary-layer flow will be maintained across west TX/southeast NM through the period. While LLJ will remain weak, it appears lower 50s surface dew points, currently observed over the Big Country, will advect into the southern High Plains by late morning. Current thinking is strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across portions of eastern NM into the TX South Plains such that convective temperatures could be breached by early afternoon. Forecast soundings at 18z for CVS and AMA both exhibit uncapped surface parcels. While PW values are somewhat low (on the order of 0.75 inch), profiles favor deep convection within a steep-lapse-rate environment. Although deep-layer shear should remain modest (surface-6-km values around 30-35kt), a few weak supercells may develop across this region. Isolated-scattered convection will propagate southeast with an attendant risk for gusty winds and perhaps some hail that could exceed 1 inch; although, much of this activity may remain below severe levels. Strengthening northwest flow should encourage this activity to spread toward I20, between MAF and ABI, during the evening. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/09/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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