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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, March 9, 2023

SPC Mar 9, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Wed Mar 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms -- a few possibly capable of producing marginally severe hail -- are expected from central Texas east-northeastward to parts of northern Mississippi/northwestern Alabama. ...Synopsis... Relatively low-amplitude flow aloft is expected across most of the U.S., as short-wave troughing shifts across the central U.S. and eventually across the Mississippi Valley. Farther west, an upper low off the Pacific Northwest Coast is forecast to shift eastward and eventually inland overnight. At the surface, the main feature of interest with respect to convective potential will be a weak baroclinic zone lying from Texas to Mississippi/Alabama. With time, as weak upper-level troughing shifts eastward, weak frontal low development is forecast to begin near the Mississippi Delta after dark, and then shift northeastward to the southern Ohio/eastern Kentucky area late. As this occurs, the aforementioned baroclinic zone will move slowly southeastward in the wake of the low, through the end of the period. ...Central Texas east/northeastward into portions of northern Mississippi/northern Alabama... A cluster of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley area during the day, on the cool side of the surface front lying across this region. With generally weak CAPE, and a cool/stable boundary layer in place near and north of the front, storms should remain largely if not entirely sub-severe, with only a very low-end risk for marginal hail. Later in the period, as the cold front begins advancing, elevated/anafrontal storms are expected to develop from Texas to southeastern Oklahoma/Arkansas, and shift eastward with time. With somewhat greater CAPE across this area, a few stronger storms may producing marginally severe hail through the second half of the period. ..Goss/Supinie.. 03/09/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)