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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, March 7, 2023

SPC Mar 7, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail are expected to develop this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... Mid-level flow will become southwesterly today across the southern Plains, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central Plains. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain across north Texas. In response to the southwesterly mid-level flow, warm advection will take place across much of the southern Plains. Elevated instability will increase today to north of the front from northwest Texas into southern and central Oklahoma. By late this afternoon into the evening, RAP and NAM forecast soundings have MUCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In response to increasing low-level flow and large-scale ascent this evening, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from northwest Texas into southern Oklahoma. The instability combined with effective shear around 50 knots, evident on forecast soundings, should be enough for marginally severe hail with the stronger updrafts. The hail threat could linger in the overnight period, but should remain isolated. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 03/07/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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