LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2023
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail are expected to
develop this evening into tonight across parts of the southern
Plains.
...Southern Plains...
Mid-level flow will become southwesterly today across the southern
Plains, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the central Plains.
At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will remain across north
Texas. In response to the southwesterly mid-level flow, warm
advection will take place across much of the southern Plains.
Elevated instability will increase today to north of the front from
northwest Texas into southern and central Oklahoma. By late this
afternoon into the evening, RAP and NAM forecast soundings have
MUCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In response to
increasing low-level flow and large-scale ascent this evening,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from northwest Texas
into southern Oklahoma. The instability combined with effective
shear around 50 knots, evident on forecast soundings, should be
enough for marginally severe hail with the stronger updrafts. The
hail threat could linger in the overnight period, but should remain
isolated.
..Broyles/Supinie.. 03/07/2023
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