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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, March 10, 2023

SPC Mar 10, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Thu Mar 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A band of storms forecast to move across parts of southern Georgia, adjacent southeastern Alabama and into northern Florida Friday afternoon may produce locally strong wind gusts, while a few stronger cells may also prove capable of producing marginally severe hail. ...Synopsis... Relatively low-amplitude flow aloft will largely prevail across the U.S. through the period, though some intensification of a trough crossing the eastern U.S. is expected with time. As this trough modestly strengthens, an accompanying surface low is forecast to cross the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region, before redeveloping offshore over the Gulf Stream overnight. Meanwhile, a cold front associated with this low is forecast to shift southeastward across the southeastern U.S., and will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms through much of the period, before weakening across Florida late. ...Southeastern Alabama/southern Georgia into northern Florida... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from the Carolinas to East Texas, moving southeastward with time in conjunction with the advance of the surface cold front. While the storms are expected to be elevated above a stable boundary layer early in the period, some heating/surface-based destabilization is progged across parts of southern Alabama, and into southern Georgia and northern Florida ahead of the convection. This should permit storms to become surface-based, as they shift southward into the early evening hours before weakening. In the meantime, weakly veering but increasing wind speeds with height will result in shear profiles sufficient for organized storms. While degree of surface-based CAPE may remain limited, a few stronger storms appear likely. As such, attendant risk for strong wind gusts locally, and potential for marginally severe hail, will likely evolve. Instability concerns preclude slight risk addition at this time. ..Goss/Supinie.. 03/10/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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