LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms producing large hail and occasional
damaging winds will be possible mainly Saturday evening and
overnight from eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and vicinity. A couple
tornadoes may also occur Saturday evening across parts of
southeastern Oklahoma.
...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
An upper trough/low will advance eastward across the northern Plains
on Saturday, while a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough
moves quickly over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley through
the period. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over the central
High Plains should develop southeastward across OK by late
afternoon. A surface warm front is forecast to lift northward over
parts of east TX/OK and southern AR through the evening, with
generally upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints present along/south of this
boundary. A dryline attendant to the surface low should mix quickly
eastward across central OK and north/central TX by early evening.
Fairly strong convective inhibition along the dryline associated
with a stout cap will likely preclude robust thunderstorm
development for much of the day. Eventually, cooler mid-level
temperatures and ascent associated with the shortwave trough will
overspread the surface warm sector, and support at least isolated
thunderstorm development over eastern OK Saturday evening.
Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse
rates across this region will easily support supercells with a
threat for large hail. Some of this activity should occur to the
north of the warm front in AR and remain elevated, while posing
mainly a hail threat into Saturday night.
A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist Saturday evening for
a couple of tornadoes over parts of southeastern OK. This region
should have sufficient shear associated with a low-level jet to
support updraft rotation. If a supercell can remain surface-based
even as surface temperatures gradually cool and MLCIN increases,
then some tornado risk may persist through about 03-06Z. Otherwise,
upscale growth into a bowing line segment may eventually occur
across AR and vicinity Saturday night. With the tendency for
convection to become/remain elevated with eastward extent into the
lower MS Valley, potential for strong/damaging winds will probably
stay fairly isolated.
..Gleason.. 03/10/2023
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/Skfwkp
