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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, March 10, 2023

SPC Mar 10, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms producing large hail and occasional damaging winds will be possible mainly Saturday evening and overnight from eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and vicinity. A couple tornadoes may also occur Saturday evening across parts of southeastern Oklahoma. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper trough/low will advance eastward across the northern Plains on Saturday, while a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough moves quickly over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley through the period. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over the central High Plains should develop southeastward across OK by late afternoon. A surface warm front is forecast to lift northward over parts of east TX/OK and southern AR through the evening, with generally upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints present along/south of this boundary. A dryline attendant to the surface low should mix quickly eastward across central OK and north/central TX by early evening. Fairly strong convective inhibition along the dryline associated with a stout cap will likely preclude robust thunderstorm development for much of the day. Eventually, cooler mid-level temperatures and ascent associated with the shortwave trough will overspread the surface warm sector, and support at least isolated thunderstorm development over eastern OK Saturday evening. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates across this region will easily support supercells with a threat for large hail. Some of this activity should occur to the north of the warm front in AR and remain elevated, while posing mainly a hail threat into Saturday night. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist Saturday evening for a couple of tornadoes over parts of southeastern OK. This region should have sufficient shear associated with a low-level jet to support updraft rotation. If a supercell can remain surface-based even as surface temperatures gradually cool and MLCIN increases, then some tornado risk may persist through about 03-06Z. Otherwise, upscale growth into a bowing line segment may eventually occur across AR and vicinity Saturday night. With the tendency for convection to become/remain elevated with eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, potential for strong/damaging winds will probably stay fairly isolated. ..Gleason.. 03/10/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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