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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, February 25, 2023

SPC Feb 25, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of southern California and from northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas/southwest Missouri. ...Southern CA... Cold upper trough should advance into the lower CO River Valley by 26/12z as 110kt 500mb speed max translates across the northern Gulf of CA toward southwest AZ. Mid-level temperatures are quite cold with this feature (sub -30C at 500mb) along with steep lapse rates and low freezing levels. While buoyancy should remain weak, onshore flow will aid instability across coastal southern CA, more than adequate to support lightning in the most robust updrafts. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS/Southwest MO/Northwest AR... Stubborn upper ridge will move little from its position over the southeast Gulf Basin. As a result, southerly trajectories around the western side of this feature will slowly transport higher-quality moisture across TX atop a cold, shallow air mass over the southern Plains. LLJ is forecast to strengthen over northwest TX by early evening then intensify during the overnight hours into central OK. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near 850mb. With mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km, it appears a few elevated thunderstorms may evolve within this weak warm advection corridor, primarily during the latter half of the period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/25/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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