LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of southern
California and from northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas/southwest Missouri.
...Southern CA...
Cold upper trough should advance into the lower CO River Valley by
26/12z as 110kt 500mb speed max translates across the northern Gulf
of CA toward southwest AZ. Mid-level temperatures are quite cold
with this feature (sub -30C at 500mb) along with steep lapse rates
and low freezing levels. While buoyancy should remain weak, onshore
flow will aid instability across coastal southern CA, more than
adequate to support lightning in the most robust updrafts.
...Northeast OK/Southeast KS/Southwest MO/Northwest AR...
Stubborn upper ridge will move little from its position over the
southeast Gulf Basin. As a result, southerly trajectories around the
western side of this feature will slowly transport higher-quality
moisture across TX atop a cold, shallow air mass over the southern
Plains. LLJ is forecast to strengthen over northwest TX by early
evening then intensify during the overnight hours into central OK.
Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE if lifting a parcel
near 850mb. With mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km, it
appears a few elevated thunderstorms may evolve within this weak
warm advection corridor, primarily during the latter half of the
period.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/25/2023
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