LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2023
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible from late
Sunday afternoon into the evening from parts of northwest Texas
northward into southern and eastern Kansas. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the primary threats although an isolated tornado
threat is also expected.
...Southern and Central Plains...
A highly progressive upper-level trough, and an associated 90 to 110
knot mid-level jet, will move eastward across Rockies on Sunday and
into the southern Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the system, moisture
return will take place across the southern Plains on Sunday,
especially above a relatively cool airmass. By late afternoon,
surface dewpoints will likely reach the 60s F across the eastern
half of Texas with 50s F in place across much of Oklahoma. A strong
band of large-scale ascent, ahead of the approaching system, is
forecast to move across the Texas Panhandle. Convective initiation
is expected near the leading edge of ascent across the central Texas
Panhandle during the late afternoon. As storms increase in coverage,
a strongly forced line of storms is forecast to organize and move
eastward across northwest Texas, western and central Oklahoma and
southern Kansas. This squall line is forecast to become severe and
persist through mid to late evening.
The upper-level system will move into the southern Plains early
Sunday evening, as a surface low rapidly develops in southwest
Kansas. A cold front will advance eastward across west Texas as a
narrow corridor of weak instability develops ahead of the front.
Wind fields over the top of this airmass will be very strong. NAM
forecast soundings in the eastern Texas Panhandle near and just
after 00Z/Monday show winds just above the surface in the 50 to 60
knot range. Any line of storms that can intensify and transfer this
wind to the surface will have potential for severe damaging winds. A
wind damage threat along with some brief tornadoes will be possible
with rotating elements embedded in the line. Isolated large hail may
also occur with the more intense sections of the line. The line of
strong to severe storms is expected to continue into the mid to late
evening, affecting areas from north-central Texas northward into
central Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. Any severe threat should become
isolated and marginal as instability drops in the late evening and
early overnight.
..Broyles.. 02/25/2023
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