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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, February 25, 2023

SPC Feb 25, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible from late Sunday afternoon into the evening from parts of northwest Texas northward into southern and eastern Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats although an isolated tornado threat is also expected. ...Southern and Central Plains... A highly progressive upper-level trough, and an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet, will move eastward across Rockies on Sunday and into the southern Plains Sunday night. Ahead of the system, moisture return will take place across the southern Plains on Sunday, especially above a relatively cool airmass. By late afternoon, surface dewpoints will likely reach the 60s F across the eastern half of Texas with 50s F in place across much of Oklahoma. A strong band of large-scale ascent, ahead of the approaching system, is forecast to move across the Texas Panhandle. Convective initiation is expected near the leading edge of ascent across the central Texas Panhandle during the late afternoon. As storms increase in coverage, a strongly forced line of storms is forecast to organize and move eastward across northwest Texas, western and central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. This squall line is forecast to become severe and persist through mid to late evening. The upper-level system will move into the southern Plains early Sunday evening, as a surface low rapidly develops in southwest Kansas. A cold front will advance eastward across west Texas as a narrow corridor of weak instability develops ahead of the front. Wind fields over the top of this airmass will be very strong. NAM forecast soundings in the eastern Texas Panhandle near and just after 00Z/Monday show winds just above the surface in the 50 to 60 knot range. Any line of storms that can intensify and transfer this wind to the surface will have potential for severe damaging winds. A wind damage threat along with some brief tornadoes will be possible with rotating elements embedded in the line. Isolated large hail may also occur with the more intense sections of the line. The line of strong to severe storms is expected to continue into the mid to late evening, affecting areas from north-central Texas northward into central Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. Any severe threat should become isolated and marginal as instability drops in the late evening and early overnight. ..Broyles.. 02/25/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)