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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, February 23, 2023

SPC Feb 23, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible from southwest Oregon across the California coast and into northwest Arizona throughout the period. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Southeast during the latter half of the period. ...Discussion... Mid-level height rises are forecast across much of the CONUS Thursday as a belt of broad southwesterly flow will continue from the southwestern US into New England. The most dominant feature continues to be the stubborn upper ridge anchored at low latitudes. This feature will ensure favorable low-level trajectories off the Gulf Basin into the Gulf States where surface dew points are expected to hold in the 60s through the period. Even so, instability should remain modest as poor lapse rates limit buoyancy. In the absence of meaningful short-wave influences, weak warm advection and weak frontal forcing will prove instrumental in thunderstorm potential from northeast LA toward the southern Appalachians. At this time it appears severe threat is too meager to warrant severe probabilities due to suppressed forcing for ascent. Upstream, very cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates will persist north of the jet from CA into the Great Basin. Model guidance continues to suggest 500mb temperatures will approach -30C into portions of the lower CO River Valley as 100kt speed max rounds the base of the western US trough. Onshore flow along the Pacific Coast will contribute to weak buoyancy given the very cold profiles. A few flashes of lightning appear possible with the more robust updrafts given the low freezing levels. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop a bit farther inland into portions of northwestern AZ region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/23/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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