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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, February 22, 2023

SPC Feb 22, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday morning through afternoon from parts of Oklahoma into western Arkansas, across Missouri and western Illinois. Damaging winds appear most likely. ...Synopsis... A potent and compact shortwave trough initially in the southern High Plains will make rapid progress northeastward into the Ohio Valley by early evening. A Pacific front/dryline will move east through Oklahoma before being overtaken by a cold front later in the period. A warm front from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana will tend to make little progress north due to the entrenched cold air over the Great Lakes region. Lower 60s F dewpoints are expected to move northward Tuesday evening and reach the Midwest by the afternoon. Greater moisture (upper 60s F dewpoints) will remain within the lower Mississippi Valley region. ...Oklahoma into central Missouri and west-central Illinois... Storms are likely to develop early Wednesday morning in Oklahoma. Additional storms will develop along near the surface low and warm front into Missouri and Illinois. Some of the stronger initial updrafts could produce marginally severe hail. Forcing from the shortwave trough will be strongest in these areas. Wind profiles will be quite strong at low and mid levels. Boundary-layer destabilization may be relatively weak given the amount of cloud cover expected. Even so, 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE, with perhaps locally higher values where cloud breaks occur, will support convective transport of strong low-level winds to the surface. In combination with the fast storm motions expected, wind damage will be the primary threat with any linear segments that can develop. Low-level shear will also support line-embedded circulations. ...Northern Mississippi... A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist tomorrow afternoon. A few CAMs show thunderstorms developing ahead of the Pacific front/dryline. Storm initiation is somewhat questionable given the somewhat of a glancing influence from the shortwave trough. Furthermore, given the antecedent ridging in the Southeast, mid-level temperatures are warmer and lapse rates are poor as a result. Should a storm or two develop, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible. ..Wendt/Kerr.. 02/22/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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