LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday morning through
afternoon from parts of Oklahoma into western Arkansas, across
Missouri and western Illinois. Damaging winds appear most likely.
...Synopsis...
A potent and compact shortwave trough initially in the southern High
Plains will make rapid progress northeastward into the Ohio Valley
by early evening. A Pacific front/dryline will move east through
Oklahoma before being overtaken by a cold front later in the period.
A warm front from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana will
tend to make little progress north due to the entrenched cold air
over the Great Lakes region. Lower 60s F dewpoints are expected to
move northward Tuesday evening and reach the Midwest by the
afternoon. Greater moisture (upper 60s F dewpoints) will remain
within the lower Mississippi Valley region.
...Oklahoma into central Missouri and west-central Illinois...
Storms are likely to develop early Wednesday morning in Oklahoma.
Additional storms will develop along near the surface low and warm
front into Missouri and Illinois. Some of the stronger initial
updrafts could produce marginally severe hail. Forcing from the
shortwave trough will be strongest in these areas. Wind profiles
will be quite strong at low and mid levels. Boundary-layer
destabilization may be relatively weak given the amount of cloud
cover expected. Even so, 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE, with perhaps
locally higher values where cloud breaks occur, will support
convective transport of strong low-level winds to the surface. In
combination with the fast storm motions expected, wind damage will
be the primary threat with any linear segments that can develop.
Low-level shear will also support line-embedded circulations.
...Northern Mississippi...
A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist tomorrow
afternoon. A few CAMs show thunderstorms developing ahead of the
Pacific front/dryline. Storm initiation is somewhat questionable
given the somewhat of a glancing influence from the shortwave
trough. Furthermore, given the antecedent ridging in the Southeast,
mid-level temperatures are warmer and lapse rates are poor as a
result. Should a storm or two develop, damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado would be possible.
..Wendt/Kerr.. 02/22/2023
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