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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, January 9, 2023

SPC Jan 9, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Sun Jan 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur along/near parts of the immediate central California Coastline, mainly early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the MS Valley as a series of mid-level impulses traverses CA today. The first upper impulse will overspread CA during the morning into afternoon hours, accompanied by scant buoyancy and a risk for general thunderstorms. Toward the end of the period though, a second, more potent mid-level impulse will approach the CA coastline with relatively more buoyancy and enough lift/shear to promote potentially strong thunderstorm development, and an instance of severe weather cannot be ruled out. ...Central California Coastline early Tuesday Morning... In the 09-12Z Tuesday period, the second aforementioned mid-level trough will approach the coastline accompanied by cooler 850-500 mb temperatures, supporting 7 C/ km lapse rates from near the surface to about 500 mb (per latest point forecast soundings). These lapse rates will overspread surface temperatures/dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F, contributing to a few hundred J/kg of low-level CAPE along the central CA coastline. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear will be in place to support a threat of a damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado. However, guidance consensus has been trending later in the arrival of the second wave and associated convective development. As such, Category 1 - Marginal severe probabilities have been confined to the immediate coastline, where an instance of severe could occur before 12Z Tuesday. If trends continue to delay the arrival of convection any later, severe probabilities may need to be removed in future Day 1 Outlooks. ..Squitieri/Dean.. 01/09/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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