LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2023
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low today.
...Parts of central/east TX...
One low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
move slowly eastward from the central Plains towards the mid-MS
Valley later today, as another low-amplitude shortwave trough moves
from near the Gulf of California eastward into parts of west/central
TX by Sunday morning. A cold front will move southward across
central/east TX into northern LA, with seasonably rich low-level
moisture expected to be in place along and south of the front this
afternoon into tonight.
The warm sector across central/east TX into LA will likely remain
capped for most of the day, but scattered thunderstorm development
is expected near the southward-moving front sometime this evening,
as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough (described above) begins to
approach the region from northern Mexico. MUCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for
organized storms with some threat of hail. However, a tendency for
storms to be undercut by the front and for convective mode to become
messy due to storm interactions may limit the longevity of any
stronger and more organized updrafts, which would temper the
severe-hail threat.
...Central/northern California...
The next in a series of strong mid/upper-level shortwave troughs
will begin to impact parts of central/northern CA later today.
Thunderstorm potential in association with this system is expected
to increase this evening into the overnight hours, as colder
temperatures aloft and steeper midlevel lapse rates move into the
region. While weak instability is expected to limit storm intensity,
small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest
convection across coastal regions of central/northern CA tonight.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 01/07/2023
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