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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, January 7, 2023

SPC Jan 7, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low today. ...Parts of central/east TX... One low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward from the central Plains towards the mid-MS Valley later today, as another low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from near the Gulf of California eastward into parts of west/central TX by Sunday morning. A cold front will move southward across central/east TX into northern LA, with seasonably rich low-level moisture expected to be in place along and south of the front this afternoon into tonight. The warm sector across central/east TX into LA will likely remain capped for most of the day, but scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the southward-moving front sometime this evening, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough (described above) begins to approach the region from northern Mexico. MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg and increasing deep-layer shear will support the potential for organized storms with some threat of hail. However, a tendency for storms to be undercut by the front and for convective mode to become messy due to storm interactions may limit the longevity of any stronger and more organized updrafts, which would temper the severe-hail threat. ...Central/northern California... The next in a series of strong mid/upper-level shortwave troughs will begin to impact parts of central/northern CA later today. Thunderstorm potential in association with this system is expected to increase this evening into the overnight hours, as colder temperatures aloft and steeper midlevel lapse rates move into the region. While weak instability is expected to limit storm intensity, small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest convection across coastal regions of central/northern CA tonight. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 01/07/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
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