LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Mon Jan 09 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado may occur Tuesday across
parts of southern/central California.
...Southern/Central California...
A powerful and highly amplified upper trough will move from the
eastern Pacific across the western CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded
shortwave trough with associated strong mid-level jet is forecast to
advance eastward over parts of southern/central CA and into the
Southwest through the period. Strong ascent preceding the shortwave
trough and weak instability may support a low-topped band of
convection along/near the central CA Coast at the beginning of the
period early Tuesday morning.
Strong deep-layer shear will likely exist across coastal portions of
southern/central CA as enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly winds
overspread these areas. Guidance suggests 40-50+ kt of effective
bulk shear will be present, which will support updraft organization.
The main uncertainty continues to be the degree of instability that
will be realized. With a persistent southwesterly low-level fetch,
low to mid 50s surface dewpoints should advect slightly inland over
parts of southern CA through Tuesday morning. Even though diurnal
heating will likely be hampered by widespread cloudiness, cooling
mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates aloft are expected
as the shortwave trough moves eastward through the day. This should
help compensate for the limited daytime heating, and around 200-500
J/kg of MLCAPE may develop.
The forecast combination of weak, but potentially sufficient,
instability and strong deep-layer shear suggests that some severe
threat will probably exist with thunderstorms spreading inland along
the central to southern CA Coast Tuesday morning and early
afternoon. A modestly enhanced low-level jet should also be present
over these regions. Given the strength of the flow aloft, and
potential for a low-topped band of convection to move generally
southeastward along/near the coast, isolated damaging winds should
be the primary severe threat. But, enough low-level shear to support
updraft rotation will also be present. A brief tornado appears
possible, especially if a supercell can develop and be sustained.
This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain confined to
mainly coastal regions of southern/central CA, as appreciable
low-level moisture is not expected to advance very far inland.
..Gleason.. 01/09/2023
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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
CONVECTIVE | TORNADO | WIND | HAIL
Monday, January 9, 2023
SPC Jan 9, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)