LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across
parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into the central Gulf
Coast states. Some hail may occur with thunderstorms in east Texas.
Otherwise, locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two
should be the main threats.
...Gulf Coast Region...
Late-evening satellite imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough over
northwest Mexico, in line with latest model guidance. This
southern-stream short wave is forecast to weaken as it ejects toward
south TX later today. As a result, neutral height changes are
expected across the Gulf Coast region; thus, low-level warm
advection should prove instrumental in the majority of convective
development through the period.
Numerous showers, and isolated thunderstorms, currently extend from
northeast TX across AR into western TN. This activity is driven
largely by warm advection ahead of a surging polar front that will
advance into the TX Coastal Plain by 18z, then ease into the lower
MS Valley late. Latest guidance suggests appreciable air mass
recovery will be limited to near-coastal regions, but the majority
of convection will likely be elevated and north of the warm front,
or along/immediately behind the polar front. True warm-sector deep
convection may struggle to evolve due to poor low-level lapse rates
and the lack of forcing. Even so, forecast soundings suggest ample
buoyancy should exist for robust elevated convection, especially
across the upper TX Coast, and this activity could generate some
hail. Otherwise, locally damaging winds are the primary risk with
near-surface-based storms along/near the aforementioned fronts.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/29/2023
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