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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, January 29, 2023

SPC Jan 29, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into the central Gulf Coast states. Some hail may occur with thunderstorms in east Texas. Otherwise, locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two should be the main threats. ...Gulf Coast Region... Late-evening satellite imagery depicts a weak short-wave trough over northwest Mexico, in line with latest model guidance. This southern-stream short wave is forecast to weaken as it ejects toward south TX later today. As a result, neutral height changes are expected across the Gulf Coast region; thus, low-level warm advection should prove instrumental in the majority of convective development through the period. Numerous showers, and isolated thunderstorms, currently extend from northeast TX across AR into western TN. This activity is driven largely by warm advection ahead of a surging polar front that will advance into the TX Coastal Plain by 18z, then ease into the lower MS Valley late. Latest guidance suggests appreciable air mass recovery will be limited to near-coastal regions, but the majority of convection will likely be elevated and north of the warm front, or along/immediately behind the polar front. True warm-sector deep convection may struggle to evolve due to poor low-level lapse rates and the lack of forcing. Even so, forecast soundings suggest ample buoyancy should exist for robust elevated convection, especially across the upper TX Coast, and this activity could generate some hail. Otherwise, locally damaging winds are the primary risk with near-surface-based storms along/near the aforementioned fronts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/29/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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