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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, January 28, 2023

SPC Jan 28, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Jan 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley... Upper ridging is expected to hold across the Gulf Basin Saturday with broad height rises forecast across the Gulf States. Latest satellite imagery suggests one notable short-wave trough is digging southeast across NV and this feature will translate into the southern Rockies before deamplifying as it ejects into the mid MS Valley late in the period. Another significant, low-latitude short-wave trough will approach south TX late in the period. In both cases these features are not expected to provide appreciable large-scale forcing to a region (east TX/lower MS Valley) that will experience significant moistening through the day1 period. The northerly short wave will encourage a strengthening low-level jet over the Arklatex later today before translating into the TN Valley during the overnight hours. Remnant weak low-level warm advection will persist across east TX/lower MS Valley which should aid convective development, primarily during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests ample buoyancy will develop across this region as modified Gulf air mass advances inland ahead of a surging cold front that will extend from southeast MO-northeast TX by 29/12z. Forecast soundings suggest updrafts will likely remain elevated, but there is some potential for small hail as buoyancy increases after midnight. At this time it appears instability will prove a bit too meager to warrant probabilities for severe hail (>1 inch). ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/28/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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