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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, January 21, 2023

SPC Jan 21, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday night along the central Gulf Coast region. ...Central Gulf Coast... Latest model guidance suggests an upper low currently located over northern NM will weaken and become more positively tilted as it migrates into the Plains/MS Valley. Even so, strong mid-high-level flow will extend across low latitudes from south TX into the Carolinas. This feature is forecast to influence the maturation of a weak surface low that will track across the northwestern Gulf Basin, then into southeast LA after 22/00z, before advancing into southwest AL by the end of the period. This evolution should encourage modified Gulf air mass to advance at least 50-60 miles inland where mid 60s surface dew points are expected. Low-level warm advection will drive elevated convection north of the warm front through the period; however, near-surface-based buoyancy should develop during the overnight hours as more southerly low-level trajectory materializes. Forecast soundings along the central Gulf Coast suggest modest instability and ample shear for supercells. If dew points can rise to near 67F there is some concern that surface-based supercells are possible, and along with them a greater risk for wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Greatest risk appears to be along the southern AL Coast into the western FL Panhandle after midnight. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/21/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)