LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2023
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the middle Texas Gulf Coast
into southern Louisiana early Saturday morning.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Strong mid-level western/southwesterly flow is expected to extend
from AZ across the southern Plains and over much of the eastern
CONUS ahead of southern-stream cyclone initially centered over AZ.
This cyclone is forecast to move eastward across the Southwest
throughout the day, ending the period centered over the southern
High Plains.
Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated Friday evening over eastern NM,
helping to induce southerly low-level flow across southwest TX into
the southern High Plains. However, scouring of the low-level
moisture by a preceding frontal passage will limit moisture return
across most of TX. The only exception is across deep south TX, where
the most recent guidance indicates low 60s dewpoints will be in
place early Saturday morning. Even with the better low-level
moisture remaining offshore, warm-air advection is expected to
support elevated thunderstorm development from the middle TX Coast
into southern LA early Saturday morning. Vertical shear should be
strong enough to support some organized updrafts, but buoyancy will
be weak, mitigating any severe potential.
..Mosier.. 01/19/2023
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