Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, January 24, 2023

SPC Jan 24, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from the middle to upper Texas Coast, spreading eastward across southern Louisiana and into coastal Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle by Wednesday morning. Damaging winds and several tornadoes are anticipated. A few strong tornadoes are expected. ...Gulf Coast Region... An upper-level low over the southern Plains, and an associated upper-level trough extending southward into northern Mexico, will move eastward into central and south Texas today. A 70 to 90 knot mid-level speed max will translate eastward through the base of the trough, with the exit region of the jet overspreading the southern Plains this afternoon. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture advection will take place with the 60 Fahrenheit isodrosotherm reaching about 80 statute miles inland across the middle Texas coast by late morning. As surface temperatures warm, SBCAPE is forecast to increase to around 1000 J/kg in the vicinity of Victoria with weaker instability developing further inland. During the morning, thunderstorms will move eastward across the Texas Hill Country. By 18Z, the storms will likely develop a severe threat, moving eastward into the western edge of the moist airmass. Near and ahead of the surface low, surface winds will be backed to the south and southeast. This combined with 50 to 70 knot low-level jet will create long and looped hodographs favorable for supercells and tornadoes. The Victoria, Texas 18Z RAP forecast sounding has 0-3 km storm relative helicity near 350 m2/s2 suggesting a tornado threat could develop relatively early in the day. Around midday and throughout the afternoon, convective mode is expected to be supercellular, as a cluster of storms moves eastward across the Houston and Galveston areas. Strong speed shear, increasing from near 20 knots at the surface to 50 knots at 850 mb, will make a strong tornado possible with any supercell that becomes dominant. Wind damage and isolated large hail will also likely accompany supercells. The threat should spread eastward to the Beaumont/Port Arthur areas by late afternoon. The surface low will move northeastward into western Mississippi this evening as a line organizes ahead of a cold front across the lower Mississippi Valley. Some uncertainty exists concerning convective mode. The current thinking is that some cells near the Louisiana coast will remain supercellular and have a potential for tornadoes. This would be especially true if the conditional threat materializes of discrete cells developing ahead of the line. The wind-damage threat will likely increase as the squall-line moves to the central Gulf Coast around midnight. This line is forecast to move eastward to the western Florida Panhandle by late in the period and should maintain a wind-damage and tornado threat. There will be the possibility of a strong tornado, mainly due to strong low-level shear associated with the low-level jet. ..Broyles/Flournoy.. 01/24/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)