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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, January 19, 2023

SPC Jan 19, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts are possible from eastern Indiana through central and northern Ohio on Thursday afternoon to early evening. ...Ohio Valley... Strong upper low currently located over the central Plains will eject east into the OH Valley later Thursday as a 110kt 500mb speed max translates across the TN Valley into the southern middle Atlantic during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr height falls, on the order of 210m, will spread over the OH Valley during the day ahead of the approaching short wave. Additionally, very steep mid-level lapse rates will develop by mid day over IN/OH, with -30C temperature forecast at 500mb in the coldest part of the trough. This rapid adjustment will result in thermodynamic profiles becoming more favorable for convective development ahead of the front, especially with added boundary layer heating. The northern plume of strongest boundary-layer heating should extend across the southern half of IN/OH, and forecast soundings indicate up to 500mb of surface-based buoyancy will develop despite the overall poor PW values (~0.50-0.60 inch) and low surface dew points. Latest thinking is convection should easily develop by early afternoon across eastern IN, immediately ahead of the front, then spread downstream, aided by very strong forcing. Wind profiles support organized updrafts and potential supercells, but linear development is likely which should favor wind with this activity. Forced line of convection should spread across OH toward the PA border by early evening where weakening is expected, partly due to cooler boundary layer conditions and lower buoyancy. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 01/19/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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