Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, January 16, 2023

SPC Jan 16, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a mature mid-latitude cyclone will be centered over the MO/IA border vicinity early D4/Thursday morning. This cyclone is forecast to progress northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Thursday. Primary surface low associated with this cyclone will remain stacked with the mid-level center but a secondary, triple-point low is forecast to move eastward across the OH Valley. Cold front extending southward from this low is expected to progress across the OH and TN Valley and much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms are possible along and just ahead of this front, but displacement south from the parent system in tandem with marginal thermodynamics should limit the overall severe potential. Another strong upper trough is expected to drop southward through the Great Basin on D4/Thursday and across the Southwest on D5/Friday. By early D6/Saturday evolution of this system will have contributed to overall upper pattern amplification, with upper troughing extending from western Ontario through the Southwest states. Gradual eastward progression of this deep upper trough is anticipated during the weekend. However, predominantly offshore trajectories will limit moisture across the majority of the eastern CONUS. Some limited moisture return is possible along the immediate central Gulf Coast and FL on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday ahead of a strong shortwave. Predictability concerns limit forecast confidence at this range, but some severe potential may result if the current forecast pattern holds. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)