LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a mature
mid-latitude cyclone will be centered over the MO/IA border vicinity
early D4/Thursday morning. This cyclone is forecast to progress
northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into the Upper Great
Lakes on D4/Thursday. Primary surface low associated with this
cyclone will remain stacked with the mid-level center but a
secondary, triple-point low is forecast to move eastward across the
OH Valley. Cold front extending southward from this low is expected
to progress across the OH and TN Valley and much of the Southeast.
Thunderstorms are possible along and just ahead of this front, but
displacement south from the parent system in tandem with marginal
thermodynamics should limit the overall severe potential.
Another strong upper trough is expected to drop southward through
the Great Basin on D4/Thursday and across the Southwest on
D5/Friday. By early D6/Saturday evolution of this system will have
contributed to overall upper pattern amplification, with upper
troughing extending from western Ontario through the Southwest
states. Gradual eastward progression of this deep upper trough is
anticipated during the weekend. However, predominantly offshore
trajectories will limit moisture across the majority of the eastern
CONUS. Some limited moisture return is possible along the immediate
central Gulf Coast and FL on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday ahead of a
strong shortwave. Predictability concerns limit forecast confidence
at this range, but some severe potential may result if the current
forecast pattern holds.
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