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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, January 17, 2023

SPC Jan 17, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely expected today/tonight. ...Discussion... An upper low initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift steadily eastward today, reaching a position over the Ottawa River Valley of southern Quebec and adjacent Ontario. Meanwhile in the West, a second low near the Colorado River Valley at the start of the period is forecast to progress across the Four Corners states through tonight. At the surface, areas of low pressure are forecast to accompany both of the aforementioned upper systems, moving eastward roughly in tandem with their respective features aloft. With a lack of moisture/instability expected across the Great Lakes and adjacent Midwest/Ohio Valley area, thunderstorms are not expected. Meanwhile, showers/snow showers appear likely, with some potential for sporadic lightning, across portions of the Four Corners states, as cold air aloft associated with the upper system spreads across this area. Late in the period, convection may emerge into/across the central High Plains region, along with potential for some embedded lightning. Meanwhile, as low-level southerly flow increases across the southern Plains region ahead of this system, elevated destabilization may become sufficient very late in the period, across the southeastern Oklahoma vicinity, to support development of a few elevated thunderstorms. At this time, it appears that instability should remain insufficient to support risk for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss/Bentley.. 01/17/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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