LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2023
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely expected today/tonight.
...Discussion...
An upper low initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast
to shift steadily eastward today, reaching a position over the
Ottawa River Valley of southern Quebec and adjacent Ontario.
Meanwhile in the West, a second low near the Colorado River Valley
at the start of the period is forecast to progress across the Four
Corners states through tonight.
At the surface, areas of low pressure are forecast to accompany both
of the aforementioned upper systems, moving eastward roughly in
tandem with their respective features aloft.
With a lack of moisture/instability expected across the Great Lakes
and adjacent Midwest/Ohio Valley area, thunderstorms are not
expected. Meanwhile, showers/snow showers appear likely, with some
potential for sporadic lightning, across portions of the Four
Corners states, as cold air aloft associated with the upper system
spreads across this area. Late in the period, convection may emerge
into/across the central High Plains region, along with potential for
some embedded lightning.
Meanwhile, as low-level southerly flow increases across the southern
Plains region ahead of this system, elevated destabilization may
become sufficient very late in the period, across the southeastern
Oklahoma vicinity, to support development of a few elevated
thunderstorms. At this time, it appears that instability should
remain insufficient to support risk for severe-caliber hail.
..Goss/Bentley.. 01/17/2023
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