LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Wednesday morning from
northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. A few
flashes are also possible across portions of northeast Arizona and
far northwest New Mexico. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
The upper pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a
belt of enhanced westerly/southwesterly flow aloft from off the
southern CA Coast across the southern CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic
States. This belt will be anchored by a pair of cyclones, one
initially over the Upper Great Lakes and the other over southern NV.
The eastern cyclone is forecast to move northeastward through
southern Ontario throughout the day, while the western cyclone
devolves into an open wave as it moves eastward through the
Southwest/Four Corners. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level
temperatures will accompany the western cyclone, contributing to
isolated lightning flashes, mainly across northeast AZ.
Strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated across
central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley head of the approaching
shortwave trough. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach into
the ArkLaTex region by early Wednesday morning. Mid 60s dewpoints
will likely be in place across much of east TX and western LA.
Mid-level temperatures will be warm, but, given the favorable
moisture advection, modest elevated buoyancy is still expected to
develop within the warm sector. As such, isolated thunderstorms are
possible from east TX into southern AR and northwest LA early
Wednesday morning (i.e. 09Z to 12Z).
..Mosier.. 01/16/2023
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