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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, January 16, 2023

SPC Jan 16, 2023 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Wednesday morning from northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. A few flashes are also possible across portions of northeast Arizona and far northwest New Mexico. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a belt of enhanced westerly/southwesterly flow aloft from off the southern CA Coast across the southern CONUS into the Mid-Atlantic States. This belt will be anchored by a pair of cyclones, one initially over the Upper Great Lakes and the other over southern NV. The eastern cyclone is forecast to move northeastward through southern Ontario throughout the day, while the western cyclone devolves into an open wave as it moves eastward through the Southwest/Four Corners. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany the western cyclone, contributing to isolated lightning flashes, mainly across northeast AZ. Strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated across central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley head of the approaching shortwave trough. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach into the ArkLaTex region by early Wednesday morning. Mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across much of east TX and western LA. Mid-level temperatures will be warm, but, given the favorable moisture advection, modest elevated buoyancy is still expected to develop within the warm sector. As such, isolated thunderstorms are possible from east TX into southern AR and northwest LA early Wednesday morning (i.e. 09Z to 12Z). ..Mosier.. 01/16/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)