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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, December 30, 2022

SPC Dec 30, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two are possible later this morning into this afternoon along the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from southwest MS into central/eastern LA and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. Deep-layer shear in advance of a mid/upper-level trough over the southern Plains will likely remain sufficient for organized convection as the line moves eastward, while some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH (in association with a southerly low-level jet) will support the potential for localized damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two with stronger bowing segments and/or embedded circulations. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and northeastward extent of the severe threat, due to the initially rather cool and stable boundary-layer conditions from southeast LA into southern MS/AL. While continued low-level moistening is expected ahead of the line, widespread cloudiness and weak diurnal heating may limit surface-based instability through the morning, which would temper the damaging-wind and tornado threat to some extent. Damaging-wind and tornado probabilities have been kept at a Marginal Risk level for now, but there is some potential for a corridor of greater threat, if heating/destabilization in advance of the line is stronger than currently anticipated. Eventually, convection is expected to outpace the favorable low-level moisture return, resulting in a definitive weakening trend by late afternoon as storms approach southeast AL and the FL Big Bend region. ..Dean/Wendt.. 12/30/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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