LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Southeast Saturday.
...Southeast...
Southeast TX short-wave trough is forecast to advance into the lower
MS Valley by the start of the day1 period. This feature will
deamplify as it tracks across the southern Appalachians by early
evening, then off the middle Atlantic Coast during the overnight
hours. Weak height falls ahead of this system will extend as far
south as the northern Gulf States into the Carolinas. Even so,
surface response will prove negligible with no closed surface low
expected to move inland. The primary zone of low-level confluence
will shift from northern FL/southern GA early, to the Carolina Coast
by 01/00z as the short wave approaches. Limited buoyancy will negate
a greater severe risk as the aforementioned short-wave influence
will not be that strong.
Surface dew points have struggled to rise above the mid 50s across
north FL late this evening. This appears to be affecting the ongoing
convection that is spreading across the FL Panhandle. Updraft
intensities are weakening and lightning is now sparse over land.
Latest model guidance suggests 60s surface dew points will advance
north across FL into south GA during the day as temperatures warm to
near 70F. While lapse rates will remain weak, sufficient instability
will likely exist for the threat of a few robust updrafts as
deep-layer shear will be strong. Latest high-res model guidance is
not particularly aggressive in developing strong/organized updrafts
along this corridor; however some threat exists given the
approaching short wave and will continue low severe probabilities to
account for wind/brief tornado.
Downstream across the eastern Carolinas, there is some concern that
a few strong storms may ultimately develop later in the day before
low-level confluence shifts offshore. Additionally, short-wave
forcing will be stronger across this region by early evening. If it
becomes clear adequate moisture/buoyancy can evolve across eastern
NC a MRGL Risk may need to be added to this region.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/31/2022
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