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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, December 31, 2022

SPC Dec 31, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast Saturday. ...Southeast... Southeast TX short-wave trough is forecast to advance into the lower MS Valley by the start of the day1 period. This feature will deamplify as it tracks across the southern Appalachians by early evening, then off the middle Atlantic Coast during the overnight hours. Weak height falls ahead of this system will extend as far south as the northern Gulf States into the Carolinas. Even so, surface response will prove negligible with no closed surface low expected to move inland. The primary zone of low-level confluence will shift from northern FL/southern GA early, to the Carolina Coast by 01/00z as the short wave approaches. Limited buoyancy will negate a greater severe risk as the aforementioned short-wave influence will not be that strong. Surface dew points have struggled to rise above the mid 50s across north FL late this evening. This appears to be affecting the ongoing convection that is spreading across the FL Panhandle. Updraft intensities are weakening and lightning is now sparse over land. Latest model guidance suggests 60s surface dew points will advance north across FL into south GA during the day as temperatures warm to near 70F. While lapse rates will remain weak, sufficient instability will likely exist for the threat of a few robust updrafts as deep-layer shear will be strong. Latest high-res model guidance is not particularly aggressive in developing strong/organized updrafts along this corridor; however some threat exists given the approaching short wave and will continue low severe probabilities to account for wind/brief tornado. Downstream across the eastern Carolinas, there is some concern that a few strong storms may ultimately develop later in the day before low-level confluence shifts offshore. Additionally, short-wave forcing will be stronger across this region by early evening. If it becomes clear adequate moisture/buoyancy can evolve across eastern NC a MRGL Risk may need to be added to this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/31/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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