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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, December 29, 2022

SPC Dec 29, 2022 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible on Friday along the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... An eastward-translating mid-level trough will move from northern Mexico/TX to the central Gulf Coast with flow strengthening as it moves to the Gulf and into LA/MS late. Showers and a band of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning over south-central LA extending southward into the shelf waters of the Gulf. Although 0-2 km lapse rates will be modest, weak buoyancy according to model forecast soundings (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) coupled with a wind profile supporting organized storms, will support some risk for isolated wind damage from the squall line. Convection-allowing model guidance suggests this squall line will move east during the day across southeast LA into coastal MS/AL before weakening towards the FL Panhandle, as it moves east quicker than the airmass can recover and become marginally unstable inland. Scant buoyancy farther north near the I-20 corridor will limit the threat for strong storms. Late Friday night the mid-level trough will move into the LA/AR/MS, with a zone of strengthening mid-level ascent overspreading northern LA northeastward through the Delta region. Models indicate isolated thunderstorms will develop in response to this forcing moving into the area. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures may promote hail growth with the stronger updrafts. Uncertainty remains regarding this scenario, precluding low severe hail probabilities at this time. ..Smith.. 12/29/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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