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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, December 29, 2022

SPC Dec 29, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight from east Texas and western Louisiana northward into southern and central Arkansas. Locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and a brief tornado or two are all possible. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the southern High Plains this morning into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes by the end of the forecast period. A weakening cold front is expected to move slowly eastward across parts of the central/southern Plains, as a frontal wave moves from KS toward the upper Midwest. Relatively rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward into the ArkLaTex region through the day, in advance of the cold front. ...ArkLaTex and vicinity... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this morning from southeast TX into LA and southern AR, as low-level moisture continues to deepen across the region. More substantial thunderstorm development is possible by late afternoon into the evening across parts of east TX, as modest diurnal heating/destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially increasing to 1000+ J/kg) occurs in the vicinity of the cold front. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow along the southern periphery of the departing midlevel shortwave trough will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for organized storm structures. Initial semi-discrete development could pose a hail risk within 1-2 hours of initiation, in addition to a threat of isolated damaging wind. Generally unidirectional wind profiles will favor a quick transition to more of a linear or QLCS mode as storms move from east TX into parts of AR/LA tonight, with increasing low-level flow/shear supporting a continued threat of isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado or two. Convection may tend to weaken as it moves into an increasingly stable environment across eastern AR and northeast LA overnight, but storms may remain vigorous near or just offshore of the Gulf Coast through the end of the forecast period. ..Dean/Grams.. 12/29/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)