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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, December 19, 2022

SPC Dec 19, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2022 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will develop throughout the day on Monday over eastern Texas, and spread into Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Tuesday morning. Small hail may occur, but severe storms are not anticipated. ...Southern/eastern Texas to central Gulf Coast... A positive-tilt upper trough will move across OK/TX on Monday as an associated surface low develops and moves east over the northwest/north-central Gulf of Mexico. Expansive surface high pressure over the OH Valley will extend southwest across the lower MS Valley, where a cool/stable boundary-layer air mass will reside inland from the western/middle Gulf coast. Above this stable boundary layer, low-level warm/moist advection will strengthen with time resulting in widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms much of the day. NAM/RAP forecast soundings from southeast TX across southern LA suggest MUCAPE may approach 500-1000 J/kg in some areas, potentially supportive of a few stronger storms with hail. Current thinking is that mostly small hail is expected given expected widespread coverage of precipitation and the prevalence of generally modest instability which should limit the overall severe risk. ..Bunting/Weinman.. 12/19/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)