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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, December 20, 2022

SPC Dec 20, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Mon Dec 19 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday, though a strong storm or two will be possible across the Florida Keys and vicinity. ...Florida Keys into the far southern Florida Peninsula... Widespread convection will likely be ongoing later this morning across parts of the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico, in conjunction with an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough. With relatively cool and dry conditions (as noted in regional surface observations and 00Z soundings) downstream and limited potential for substantial low-level moisture advection, a general weakening trend is expected with any thunderstorms as they approach the Florida Gulf Coast later today. More substantial destabilization (with MLCAPE potentially rising to 1000-1500 J/kg) will be possible this afternoon across the Florida Keys and far southern Florida Peninsula, where somewhat greater low-level moistening (characterized by dewpoints rising to around 70 F) is expected. While stronger large-scale ascent will likely remain north of this region, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon as MLCINH weakens. Veering wind profiles (with effective shear greater than 40 kt) will be conditionally favorable for organized convection, though weak-to-modest midlevel lapse rates may temper the hail threat, while generally weak low-level flow will tend to limit the potential for an organized severe-wind risk. A Marginal Risk has not been included due to uncertainty regarding storm coverage and intensity, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed depending on shorter-term observational and guidance trends. ..Dean/Weinman.. 12/20/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC