LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sat Dec 17 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday night across parts of
southern and southeastern Texas and southwest Louisiana, and over
South Florida during the day. Severe storms are unlikely.
...Synopsis...
A pronounced shortwave trough currently approaching the southern
CA/northern Baja Peninsula will move east across the southwest and
south-central U.S. on Sunday. Strengthening southerly flow at 850 mb
will result in warm/moist advection above a cool/stable boundary
layer late, resulting in MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg late Sunday
night. The increasing warm advection, coupled with glancing ascent
with the shortwave trough, should contribute to the development of
showers and scattered thunderstorms over southern/southeast TX and
southwest Louisiana mainly after 06z. Severe storms are not
expected.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across South FL and the Keys
mainly during the day associated with a southward-moving cold front.
As low-level flow becomes northerly with time, drying/stabilization
will diminish thunderstorm potential.
..Bunting/Weinman.. 12/18/2022
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