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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, November 5, 2022

SPC Nov 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible mainly Saturday morning across parts of the central Gulf Coast states. Occasional damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense shortwave trough will eject quickly northeastward from the lower MO/Mid MS Valleys to the upper Great Lakes during the day, with a surface low moving from eastern IA across WI and into Upper MI through 00Z. A cold front will trail south from the low, with an expansive area of precipitation from IN into LA at 12Z Saturday. The strongest storms will coincide with a plume of 70 F dewpoints from LA into southern MS early in the day. A severe gust or two may occur through midday, but both lift and instability will become limited with time. Farther north across the OH Valley and MI, latest model output suggests little instability will be present to support thunderstorms. Shallow convection may occur along a weakening front/convergence zone across IN and OH, and into Lower MI closer to the low, but forecast soundings indicate maximum convective tops of just 8000 to 10000 ft. Given the meager instability, very little precipitation is anticipated, which would limit the downward transfer of momentum. As such, severe weather is not forecast given latest model trends. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 11/05/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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