LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low will move slowly southward along/near the coast
of the Pacific Northwest and northern CA on Sunday. Strong forcing
for ascent associated with a mid-level jet, along with cool
mid-level temperatures, should aid in modest destabilization along
the coast through the day. Isolated lighting flashes appear possible
with low-topped convection that moves onshore, even though
instability is forecast to remain quite weak.
Farther east, another upper trough/low will be present over central
Canada into the Upper Midwest. A broad belt of enhanced mid-level
west-southwesterly flow is forecast to extend over much of the
northern/central Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Even
though lapse rates should remain poor and instability weak, isolated
convection may still occur ahead of a cold front Sunday across parts
of GA into the Carolinas and southern VA vicinity. Negligible
instability forecast farther north across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast should generally limit lighting potential across these
regions.
Isolated thunderstorms may also occur late Sunday night into early
Monday morning across parts of central/northeast TX into the lower
MS Valley, as low-level moisture returns northward in a modest
low-level warm advection regime. Weak instability across all regions
with convective potential is expected to limit any appreciable
severe risk.
..Gleason.. 11/05/2022
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