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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, November 5, 2022

SPC Nov 5, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will move slowly southward along/near the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern CA on Sunday. Strong forcing for ascent associated with a mid-level jet, along with cool mid-level temperatures, should aid in modest destabilization along the coast through the day. Isolated lighting flashes appear possible with low-topped convection that moves onshore, even though instability is forecast to remain quite weak. Farther east, another upper trough/low will be present over central Canada into the Upper Midwest. A broad belt of enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow is forecast to extend over much of the northern/central Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Even though lapse rates should remain poor and instability weak, isolated convection may still occur ahead of a cold front Sunday across parts of GA into the Carolinas and southern VA vicinity. Negligible instability forecast farther north across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast should generally limit lighting potential across these regions. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur late Sunday night into early Monday morning across parts of central/northeast TX into the lower MS Valley, as low-level moisture returns northward in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Weak instability across all regions with convective potential is expected to limit any appreciable severe risk. ..Gleason.. 11/05/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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