LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight over parts of
northern and eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and
western Louisiana. Several tornadoes are possible over far southeast
Oklahoma and eastern Texas. A line associated with damaging winds
will spread into Arkansas and Louisiana overnight. A strong tornado
or two may occur from late afternoon into early evening.
...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A highly meridional upper-level system will move northeastward out
of the southern Rockies and into the southern/central Plains today.
An associated 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet will eject northeastward
from west Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into central
Oklahoma. A dryline will extend southward from the front across
west-central Texas. To the southeast of these boundaries, moisture
advection will maintain a moist and unstable airmass, with surface
dewpoints remaining in the 60s F across most of eastern Oklahoma and
over the eastern half of Texas. Surface dewpoints near 70 F will be
located across parts of east-central Texas. As instability increases
this afternoon across the moist sector, strong deep and low-level
shear, along with increasing large-scale ascent will make conditions
favorable for severe storms.
At the start of the period, thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of
the cold front from western Oklahoma into central Kansas. Moderate
instability will develop from east-central Texas into east-central
Oklahoma by late morning. MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range across much of the moist sector by early afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely form during the
afternoon and move northeastward across this corridor of moderate
instability. Deep-layer shear will also increase this afternoon as
the right side of the mid-level jet becomes juxtaposed with the
instability axis. RAP forecast soundings near and to the east of the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metro around 22Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and
0-6 km shear near 60 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse
rates near 7.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with isolated
large hail and wind damage. Strong speed shear in the lowest 3 km
will also support a tornado threat with the more intense supercells.
As the low-level jet strengthens across east Texas and far southeast
Oklahoma late this afternoon and early evening, a potential for
strong tornadoes will develop. The most likely area for strong
tornadoes will be from far southeast Oklahoma southward into eastern
Texas, to the east of the I-35 corridor.
As storm coverage rapidly increases this evening, a squall line will
develop and move eastward across the Arklatex, far eastern Texas and
western Arkansas. The wind-damage threat is expected to become
dominant along the leading edge of this squall line. A few
supercells will also be possible ahead of the line, with a tornado,
wind-damage and isolated large hail threat.
...Central Plains/Missouri...
An upper-level low will move northeastward into the southern High
Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across eastern Kansas this morning. Numerous
thunderstorms will be ongoing near and just ahead of the front at
the start of the period. Moisture advection ahead of the front will
maintain surface dewpoints in the 60s F. In response to some surface
heating, instability will increase along a narrow tongue of
instability from far southeast Kansas into western Missouri. The
exit region of a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet will overspread this
area during the mid to late afternoon. This, combined with enhanced
lift and increasing deep-layer shear will result in isolated severe
storms. Although wind damage will be the primary threat, a marginal
potential for hail and tornadoes may also develop.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/04/2022
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