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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, November 4, 2022

SPC Nov 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight over parts of northern and eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and western Louisiana. Several tornadoes are possible over far southeast Oklahoma and eastern Texas. A line associated with damaging winds will spread into Arkansas and Louisiana overnight. A strong tornado or two may occur from late afternoon into early evening. ...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... A highly meridional upper-level system will move northeastward out of the southern Rockies and into the southern/central Plains today. An associated 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet will eject northeastward from west Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into central Oklahoma. A dryline will extend southward from the front across west-central Texas. To the southeast of these boundaries, moisture advection will maintain a moist and unstable airmass, with surface dewpoints remaining in the 60s F across most of eastern Oklahoma and over the eastern half of Texas. Surface dewpoints near 70 F will be located across parts of east-central Texas. As instability increases this afternoon across the moist sector, strong deep and low-level shear, along with increasing large-scale ascent will make conditions favorable for severe storms. At the start of the period, thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the cold front from western Oklahoma into central Kansas. Moderate instability will develop from east-central Texas into east-central Oklahoma by late morning. MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range across much of the moist sector by early afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely form during the afternoon and move northeastward across this corridor of moderate instability. Deep-layer shear will also increase this afternoon as the right side of the mid-level jet becomes juxtaposed with the instability axis. RAP forecast soundings near and to the east of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro around 22Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear near 60 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage. Strong speed shear in the lowest 3 km will also support a tornado threat with the more intense supercells. As the low-level jet strengthens across east Texas and far southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon and early evening, a potential for strong tornadoes will develop. The most likely area for strong tornadoes will be from far southeast Oklahoma southward into eastern Texas, to the east of the I-35 corridor. As storm coverage rapidly increases this evening, a squall line will develop and move eastward across the Arklatex, far eastern Texas and western Arkansas. The wind-damage threat is expected to become dominant along the leading edge of this squall line. A few supercells will also be possible ahead of the line, with a tornado, wind-damage and isolated large hail threat. ...Central Plains/Missouri... An upper-level low will move northeastward into the southern High Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across eastern Kansas this morning. Numerous thunderstorms will be ongoing near and just ahead of the front at the start of the period. Moisture advection ahead of the front will maintain surface dewpoints in the 60s F. In response to some surface heating, instability will increase along a narrow tongue of instability from far southeast Kansas into western Missouri. The exit region of a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet will overspread this area during the mid to late afternoon. This, combined with enhanced lift and increasing deep-layer shear will result in isolated severe storms. Although wind damage will be the primary threat, a marginal potential for hail and tornadoes may also develop. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 11/04/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/ScCPBg