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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, November 3, 2022

SPC Nov 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains late this evening into the overnight period. Damaging gusts, isolated large hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible. ...Southern and Central Plains... A highly meridional upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest today. An upper-level low will develop in Arizona as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the associated trough. Ahead of the system, moisture advection will occur across the southern and central Plains as a cold front advances southeastward into the region. A dryline, from a triple point in western Kansas, will extend southward across the southern High Plains. To the east of the dryline, the airmass will likely remain capped into the early to mid evening. Convective initiation will become more likely as the evening goes on due to increasing low-level flow and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper-level system. During late evening to just after midnight, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to quickly develop from west Texas north-northeastward into central Kansas. Concerning the severe weather setup, the ECMWF solution appears reasonable for this case. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the lower to mid 60s F from the eastern Texas Panhandle into areas west of Wichita. MLCAPE along the western edge of the moist airmass should reach the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range by late evening. In addition, a 75 to 90 knot mid-level will eject northeastward across the southern and central High Plains. Storms will likely first develop around midnight in west Texas, where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper. This combined with strong deep-layer shear should be favorable for supercells with large hail. A few hours into the event, a lot of cell interactions are expected which should increase the wind-damage potential. Although a marginal tornado threat could develop early in the event, a temperature inversion should be problematic. Due to model forecasts which have stronger instability in south-central Kansas by late evening, the slight risk has been expanded north-northeastward to as far north as Salina, Kansas. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/03/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)