LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts
of the southern and central Plains late this evening into the
overnight period. Damaging gusts, isolated large hail and a marginal
tornado threat will be possible.
...Southern and Central Plains...
A highly meridional upper-level trough will move slowly eastward
across the Desert Southwest today. An upper-level low will develop
in Arizona as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet rounds the base of the
associated trough. Ahead of the system, moisture advection will
occur across the southern and central Plains as a cold front
advances southeastward into the region. A dryline, from a triple
point in western Kansas, will extend southward across the southern
High Plains. To the east of the dryline, the airmass will likely
remain capped into the early to mid evening. Convective initiation
will become more likely as the evening goes on due to increasing
low-level flow and increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching upper-level system. During late evening to just after
midnight, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to quickly develop
from west Texas north-northeastward into central Kansas.
Concerning the severe weather setup, the ECMWF solution appears
reasonable for this case. Ahead of the cold front, surface dewpoints
are forecast to increase into the lower to mid 60s F from the
eastern Texas Panhandle into areas west of Wichita. MLCAPE along the
western edge of the moist airmass should reach the 1000 to 1200 J/kg
range by late evening. In addition, a 75 to 90 knot mid-level will
eject northeastward across the southern and central High Plains.
Storms will likely first develop around midnight in west Texas,
where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper. This combined with
strong deep-layer shear should be favorable for supercells with
large hail. A few hours into the event, a lot of cell interactions
are expected which should increase the wind-damage potential.
Although a marginal tornado threat could develop early in the event,
a temperature inversion should be problematic. Due to model
forecasts which have stronger instability in south-central Kansas by
late evening, the slight risk has been expanded north-northeastward
to as far north as Salina, Kansas.
..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/03/2022
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