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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, November 2, 2022

SPC Nov 2, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough over the southern Plains the lower MO Valley Day 4/Sat morning will quickly lift northeast to the upper Great Lakes by evening. A surface low over southeast MN will lift northeast at the same time, while a cold front sweeps eastward across the MS Valley and much of the Midwest. Some low-end severe potential may persist along the front across parts of the lower MS Valley where rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place and support at least weak instability amid moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow. However, potential appears too low/uncertain to include a 15 percent area at this time. Severe potential appears low the remainder of the period as an upper ridge builds over the eastern U.S. while another large-scale trough develops over the western states. Gulf moisture is forecast to spread northward across the Plains/MS Valley vicinity ahead of the western trough shifting east toward the Plains around Day 8. Some severe potential could develop around this time, or just after the forecast period. Timing of this feature and the evolution of boundary-layer moisture is uncertain at this time, precluding severe probabilities. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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