LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave upper trough over the southern Plains the lower MO
Valley Day 4/Sat morning will quickly lift northeast to the upper
Great Lakes by evening. A surface low over southeast MN will lift
northeast at the same time, while a cold front sweeps eastward
across the MS Valley and much of the Midwest. Some low-end severe
potential may persist along the front across parts of the lower MS
Valley where rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place and
support at least weak instability amid moderate deep-layer
southwesterly flow. However, potential appears too low/uncertain to
include a 15 percent area at this time.
Severe potential appears low the remainder of the period as an upper
ridge builds over the eastern U.S. while another large-scale trough
develops over the western states. Gulf moisture is forecast to
spread northward across the Plains/MS Valley vicinity ahead of the
western trough shifting east toward the Plains around Day 8. Some
severe potential could develop around this time, or just after the
forecast period. Timing of this feature and the evolution of
boundary-layer moisture is uncertain at this time, precluding severe
probabilities.
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