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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, November 2, 2022

SPC Nov 2, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of northwest Texas into western Oklahoma, central Kansas and far south-central Nebraska Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Southern/Central Plains and Vicinity... A potent upper trough over the western U.S. Thursday morning will develop east, extending from the northern High Plains to northwest Mexico by Friday morning. A belt of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity ahead of the trough. Moderate low-level flow, characterized by a 35-50 kt southerly low-level jet will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture through the forecast period. Mid 60s F surface dewpoints are possible as far north as southern KS by Thursday night. Upper 50s to near 60 F boundary-layer dewpoints are then expected along a narrow corridor with northward extent from southeast NE toward the Upper MS Valley ahead of a southeastward advancing cold front. This will aid in modest destabilization across the southern Plains into parts of KS/NE by Thursday evening as midlevel lapse rates begin to steepen. The more modest moisture return with northward extent will limit severe potential across parts of the lower/mid-MO Valley into MN/WI. Strong vertical shear will be in place, with forecast effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt across the warm sector. Forecast soundings also indicate curved low-level hodographs, becoming straight/elongated above 3 or 4 km, supporting organized updrafts. Some uncertainty exists regarding timing of convective initiation. Forecast guidance continues to vary in timing of eastward ejection of lead shortwave impulses ahead of the main western upper trough. This will impact when/where convection develops overnight. This is especially the case across the southern Plains, where the surface boundary will not advance as quickly east/southeast as it does across NE and the Upper Midwest. The most likely timing of initiation appears to be between 03-06z, though convection may remain fairly isolated until after 06z. While this severe threat is focused on the later hours of the forecast period, and is somewhat conditional, the environment will support severe storms capable of all hazards. ..Leitman.. 11/02/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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