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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, October 31, 2022

SPC Oct 31, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Carolinas... A mid-level trough initially over the middle MS Valley will move northeastward into the southern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley by tonight. A lower-latitude disturbance will move from near the FL/GA/AL border into central NC by early evening. A relatively moist airmass will become weakly unstable during the day as surface temperatures warm through the 60s deg F despite considerable cloudiness. Forecast soundings show limited surface-based CAPE and low-level hodograph size. However, the timing of the mid-level impulse and strong vertical wind shear in the mid to upper levels lend a conditional possibility for a strong storm. If slightly stronger heating occurs than models currently depict, a storm or two could yield a localized severe threat mainly during the afternoon to around sunset. ...Deep South TX... A mid-level trough over northern MX will shift eastward towards the lower Rio Grande Valley by tonight. A gradually moistening boundary layer amidst east-southeasterly low-level flow will lead to a destabilizing airmass by tonight. The arrival of strengthening large-scale ascent will promote the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the overnight. Strong 0-6 km shear (40-50 kt) will yield a conditional risk for messy, briefly rotating storm structure during the 06-12z period. Confidence in the above scenario is still low enough to preclude low-severe probabilities. ..Smith/Weinman.. 10/31/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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