LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.
...Carolinas...
A mid-level trough initially over the middle MS Valley will move
northeastward into the southern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley by
tonight. A lower-latitude disturbance will move from near the
FL/GA/AL border into central NC by early evening. A relatively
moist airmass will become weakly unstable during the day as surface
temperatures warm through the 60s deg F despite considerable
cloudiness. Forecast soundings show limited surface-based CAPE and
low-level hodograph size. However, the timing of the mid-level
impulse and strong vertical wind shear in the mid to upper levels
lend a conditional possibility for a strong storm. If slightly
stronger heating occurs than models currently depict, a storm or two
could yield a localized severe threat mainly during the afternoon to
around sunset.
...Deep South TX...
A mid-level trough over northern MX will shift eastward towards the
lower Rio Grande Valley by tonight. A gradually moistening boundary
layer amidst east-southeasterly low-level flow will lead to a
destabilizing airmass by tonight. The arrival of strengthening
large-scale ascent will promote the development of scattered showers
and thunderstorms during the overnight. Strong 0-6 km shear (40-50
kt) will yield a conditional risk for messy, briefly rotating storm
structure during the 06-12z period. Confidence in the above
scenario is still low enough to preclude low-severe probabilities.
..Smith/Weinman.. 10/31/2022
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