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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, October 30, 2022

SPC Oct 30, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2022 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe potential is expected to remain low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave mid/upper trough over the Mid-MS Valley Monday morning will shift northeast across the Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a second upper shortwave trough over northwest Mexico and the southern Rockies will shift east across TX. A broad area of deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast toward the Mid-Atlantic. This warm advection regime and modest large-scale ascent associated with the Midwest trough will allow for isolated thunderstorms ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front through the period across portions of the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. Weak instability and poor midlevel lapse rates will limit severe potential despite modest vertical shear. A couple of strong storms could result in gusty winds across GA/SC, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low. Easterly low-level flow across south TX and the middle/lower Rio Grande Valley ahead of the northwest Mexico/southern Rockies will transport Gulf moisture westward. Higher-quality boundary-layer dewpoints will remain confined to south TX. Increasing ascent and moderate vertical shear will support isolated thunderstorms within a weakly unstable airmass. A couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail across far south TX late in the period, in addition to heavy rain. However, severe potential is expected to be limited by modest instability and some weak inhibition. ..Leitman.. 10/30/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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