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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, October 29, 2022

SPC Oct 29, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. A few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts should be the main threats. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast... Southern Plains upper low is shifting east across north-central TX early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance into the Arklatex by 18z before ejecting slowly northeast into the Ozarks by the end of the period. As a result, large-scale height falls will be weak, and focused north of the more buoyant air mass expected to reside along/near the Gulf Coast. Latest model guidance suggests a weakening 500mb jet will translate across the lower MS Valley during the afternoon which should encourage a focused LLJ to extend across MS, mainly north of the greater buoyancy. Even so, this evolution is expected to permit a modified Gulf air mass to advance inland such that surface temperatures should warm into the lower-mid 70s as dew points/richer moisture increase across southeast LA into southern MS/AL. While strongest storms are currently located well offshore, robust deep convection is expected to gradually develop north as the Gulf air mass advances north. Forecast wind profiles strongly favor the potential for organized updrafts and supercells can be expected as buoyancy increases, especially during the afternoon/evening. At this time it appears low-level warm advection, along with some daytime heating, will be the primary forcing mechanisms as the upper low ejects slowly into the Ozarks, well north of this region. Marginal lapse rates will limit instability somewhat but robust updrafts are expected. Forecast soundings suggest some tornado potential will exist with this activity, along with the threat for damaging winds. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/29/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC