LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sat Oct 29 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. A few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts should be the main threats.
...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
Southern Plains upper low is shifting east across north-central TX
early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance into the
Arklatex by 18z before ejecting slowly northeast into the Ozarks by
the end of the period. As a result, large-scale height falls will be
weak, and focused north of the more buoyant air mass expected to
reside along/near the Gulf Coast. Latest model guidance suggests a
weakening 500mb jet will translate across the lower MS Valley during
the afternoon which should encourage a focused LLJ to extend across
MS, mainly north of the greater buoyancy. Even so, this evolution is
expected to permit a modified Gulf air mass to advance inland such
that surface temperatures should warm into the lower-mid 70s as dew
points/richer moisture increase across southeast LA into southern
MS/AL.
While strongest storms are currently located well offshore, robust
deep convection is expected to gradually develop north as the Gulf
air mass advances north. Forecast wind profiles strongly favor the
potential for organized updrafts and supercells can be expected as
buoyancy increases, especially during the afternoon/evening. At this
time it appears low-level warm advection, along with some daytime
heating, will be the primary forcing mechanisms as the upper low
ejects slowly into the Ozarks, well north of this region. Marginal
lapse rates will limit instability somewhat but robust updrafts are
expected. Forecast soundings suggest some tornado potential will
exist with this activity, along with the threat for damaging winds.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/29/2022
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