LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today over parts of
southeast Texas, including the Middle Texas Coast. Hail, locally
damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible.
...Central into southeast TX...
A mid/upper-level cyclone will move eastward across Texas today,
accompanied by widespread convection. An outflow-reinforced
baroclinic zone will become increasingly well-defined through the
day from east-central TX toward the upper TX coast, as a weak
surface low tracks along the boundary and a cold front sweeps
through south TX.
Some severe thunderstorm potential remains evident across parts of
southeast TX today, though substantial uncertainty remains regarding
the evolution of antecedent overnight convection. A broken line of
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Hill Country at the
start of the period, with another cluster of storms expected farther
east near or just offshore of the middle TX Coast. The coverage and
longevity of the eastern cluster will partially determine how far
north the effective warm front can get across east TX and the upper
TX coast, prior to cold frontal passage.
Rich low-level moisture, moderate buoyancy, and favorable deep-layer
shear will support organized convection near/south of the effective
warm front. A broken line of storms will likely continue along the
cold front through the day, with isolated discrete pre-frontal cells
possible. A few supercells will be possible across the warm sector
near the middle TX coast, with an attendant threat of large hail and
locally damaging wind. Low-level shear is not expected to be overly
strong, but may be sufficient to support a couple of tornadoes,
especially with any cells near the boundary.
Some severe threat could spread eastward along the upper TX coast
into southeast LA this evening, though the risk will likely become
increasingly marginal with time due to weakening instability.
Farther north, widespread elevated convection is expected north of
the boundary from north into east-central TX. Instability may be
sufficient to support an isolated hail threat across this area.
..Dean/Weinman.. 10/28/2022
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