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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, October 28, 2022

SPC Oct 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible today over parts of southeast Texas, including the Middle Texas Coast. Hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...Central into southeast TX... A mid/upper-level cyclone will move eastward across Texas today, accompanied by widespread convection. An outflow-reinforced baroclinic zone will become increasingly well-defined through the day from east-central TX toward the upper TX coast, as a weak surface low tracks along the boundary and a cold front sweeps through south TX. Some severe thunderstorm potential remains evident across parts of southeast TX today, though substantial uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of antecedent overnight convection. A broken line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Hill Country at the start of the period, with another cluster of storms expected farther east near or just offshore of the middle TX Coast. The coverage and longevity of the eastern cluster will partially determine how far north the effective warm front can get across east TX and the upper TX coast, prior to cold frontal passage. Rich low-level moisture, moderate buoyancy, and favorable deep-layer shear will support organized convection near/south of the effective warm front. A broken line of storms will likely continue along the cold front through the day, with isolated discrete pre-frontal cells possible. A few supercells will be possible across the warm sector near the middle TX coast, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally damaging wind. Low-level shear is not expected to be overly strong, but may be sufficient to support a couple of tornadoes, especially with any cells near the boundary. Some severe threat could spread eastward along the upper TX coast into southeast LA this evening, though the risk will likely become increasingly marginal with time due to weakening instability. Farther north, widespread elevated convection is expected north of the boundary from north into east-central TX. Instability may be sufficient to support an isolated hail threat across this area. ..Dean/Weinman.. 10/28/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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