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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, October 23, 2022

SPC Oct 23, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and hail are possible from the central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Additional isolated severe thunderstorms may produce strong gusts and hail across parts of the southern Plains early Monday morning. ...Central Plains to Upper MS Valley... Upper trough is advancing inland across the Intermountain West early this morning. Mid-level flow will increase across the southern Rockies early in the period then a 500mb speed max (90kt+) will translate into eastern SD by 24/12z. In response to this speed max, lee cyclone will shift east into the central Plains by late afternoon then lift north across the upper Red River Valley after midnight. Boundary-layer moisture is not particularly rich across the warm sector at this time with 60F surface dew points just now to DAL. However, it appears 50s dew points will extend along a sharpening dry line from KS into southeast SD by peak heating where surface temperatures will likely warm into the lower-mid 80s with near-dry-adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 3 km of the sounding. Despite the somewhat marginal moisture (PWs around 1 inch), forecast soundings exhibit ample buoyancy for the potential for isolated thunderstorms, as convective temperatures are breached ahead of the boundary. Additionally, very strong wind fields favor organized rotation, and a few supercells are possible. With 50kt southerly flow forecast in the lowest 1km AGL, relatively low sub-cloud RH values may enhance the wind potential with this late afternoon convection. Primary large-scale forcing, in association with the left exit region of the aforementioned jet, will shift north during the evening, and increasing warm advection is expected to contribute to elevated convection during the overnight hours. Hail is the primary risk with this activity, but some wind potential is also possible as moisture increases across the Red River Valley (of the North) late in the period ahead of the well-defined surface low. ...Southern Plains... Low-latitude trough currently observed off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast across northern Mexico toward far west TX late in the period. Forcing along the leading edge of this feature should approach the western plume of boundary-layer Gulf moisture over west TX late. Low-level confluent flow favors scattered thunderstorm development by sunrise Monday. RAP forecast sounding for ABI at 24/12z exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 600 J/kg with a fairly moist profile/modest lapse rates through 9 km. Forecast shear favors a potential squall line developing into the early day2 period. Wind/hail are the primary risks with this activity. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/23/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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